Predicting the effects of climate change on future freshwater fish diversity at global scale

Manjarrés-Hernández, Ana; Guisande, Cástor; García‐Roselló, Emilio; Heine, Juergen; Pelayo‐Villamil, Patricia; Pérez-Costas, Elisa; González-Vilas, Luís; González‐Dacosta, Jacinto; Duque, Santiago R.; Granado‐Lorencio, Carlos; Lobo, Jorge M.

doi:10.3897/natureconservation.43.58997

Cited by 31 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…For example, in Europe, sh species are at high risk of losing their potential habitat by 2050 (median loss: 43%), and 8 species will completely lose their ranges over time as a result of climate change 53 . Also, a global study of freshwater sh species showed that half of the current freshwater sh species can become extinct in the next few decades 54 . Finally, we found that some sensitive/endemic species are likely to disappear from Iranian waters, while other tolerant/resistant species are likely to expand their ranges, i.e., our sh fauna will become increasingly homogenous and less regionally diverse, as predicted in another study 55 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region under climate change impacts: distribution shifts and conservation needs

Makki

Mostafavi

Matkan

et al. 2022

Preprint

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The future changes in the spatial distribution and richness of 131 riverine fish species were investigated at 1481 sites in Iran under optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios of 2050 and 2080. The maximum entropy model was used to predict species’ potential distribution under current and future climate conditions. The hydrologic unit (HU) occupancy of the target species through the use of nine environmental variables was modeled. The most important variable determining fish occupancy was HU location, followed by elevation, climate variables, and slope. Thirty-seven species decrease potential habitat occupancy in all future scenarios. The southern Caspian HU faces the highest future species reductions. The southern Caspian HU, western Zagros, and northwestern Iran will be at higher risk for species richness reduction. Managers could use these results to plan conservational strategies to ease the movement and dispersal of species, especially those that are at risk of extinction or invasion.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region under climate change impacts: distribution shifts and conservation needs

Makki

Mostafavi

Matkan

et al. 2022

Preprint

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“…Another anthropogenic change of global concern is the climate crisis, which is also likely to interact with both habitat degradation [6] and invasive species [33] and complicate their impacts e.g., [1,3,34]. South Africa, including redfin habitat, is no exception to the impacts of climate change, and tropical to sub-tropical, small-bodied fish with limited distributions, such as redfins, are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects [35]. Deeper water may act as a thermal refuge [36] and artificial refugia can mitigate some impacts of habitat destruction [6] and provide protection from invasive predators [6,13].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Preference for Artificial Refugia over Natural Refugia in an Endangered Fish

2021

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The availability of appropriate refugia may ameliorate some impacts of habitat degradation and can aid in the conservation of target species. In addition to natural refugia, the provision of artificial refugia may be viable, particularly in degraded habitats. We examined the conservation potential of natural and artificial refugia for the endangered Eastern Cape redfin, Pseudobarbus afer. We show that deeper water is preferred so is likely to constitute a natural refuge. However, this preference is overridden by the provision of artificial refugia (a plastic pipe). We highlight that the most important habitat factor in the conservation of P. afer is availability of suitable natural refugia through avoidance of habitat destruction. However, when redfin habitat is already compromised, appropriate artificial refugia may supplement the protection provided by natural refugia and may provide benefits to the whole aquatic community.

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“…This in turn impacts population replenishment and connectivity patterns of local and invasive fishes. Warmer temperatures modifies community structure and dynamics that in turn facilitate invasions (Robert et al, 2017;Manjarres-Hernandez et al, 2021;Arnaud et al, 2021). Invasion of non-native introduced fishes even in changing environments and climate exert their effects on new habitats consequently emerging as a major threat for ecosystems around the globe, partly with irreversible consequences for the local biota (Panlasigui et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Invasion meltdown and burgeoning threats of invasive fish species in inland waters of India in the era of climate change

Singh

Srivastava

2021

Aquatic Ecosystem Health &Amp; Management

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Cyprinus carpio, Oreochromis niloticus and Clarias gariepinus are the most abundantly captured invasive fish species in the mid-stretch of the Ganga river. Fish yield and biomass data based on mean abundance by weight was calculated using algorithms and spatio-temporal population dynamics model for future prediction of these invasive fish species. Temporal biomass forecast based on mean abundance by wieght for the period from 2020 to 2029 was determined. The findings of this study predicted fish yield of 176 ± 16.33 kg km-1 day-1C. carpio and 55.43 ± 6.4 kg km-1 day-1 O. niloticus during 2029 which might result into 117.87% and 116.9% rise in temporal biomass of Common Carp and Tilapia respectively in a decade's time while 139.2% rise in temporal biomass was predicted for the invasive African catfish. The yield of invasive Common Carp, Tilapia and African Catfish was correlated with rainfall and temperature data using ANOVA and we found that variance was F = 1.36; p = 0.263 for C. carpio; F = 1.60; p = 0.326 for O. niloticus and F = 1.63; p = 0.101 for C. gariepinus, indicating that variance was very close for Tilapia and African Catfish. The observed values of variance indicated that climatic changes had more impact to these two species than to the Common Carp. The concrete and forecast values were calculated considering 95% lower and upper level of confidence, which was significant (p <0.05) and the annual regression was found to be p < 0.464, p < 0.419 and p < 0.499 for C. carpio, O. niloticus and C. gariepinus, respectively. Further, interactive performance of invaded C. carpio, O. niloticus and C. gariepinus was also assessed for understanding invasion meltdown. The results of mean abundance by weight based yield forecast of invaded Tilapia, Common Carp and African Catfish for the period of 2020 to 2029 suggest a stable production in the Ganga River in years to come. It also manifests a positive pattern of invasion in the times of climate change displaying invasion meltdown. This suggests increased pressures of fish invasions on temporal and spatial scales, and imposing new management challenges for freshwater ecosystems.

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Predicting the effects of climate change on future freshwater fish diversity at global scale

Cited by 31 publications

References 77 publications

Riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region under climate change impacts: distribution shifts and conservation needs

Riverine fish species diversity in a biodiversity hotspot region under climate change impacts: distribution shifts and conservation needs

Preference for Artificial Refugia over Natural Refugia in an Endangered Fish

Invasion meltdown and burgeoning threats of invasive fish species in inland waters of India in the era of climate change

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