Predicting the frequency of accidents in port areas by developing event trees from historical analysis

Ronza, A.; Félez, S.; Darbra, Rosa Mari; Carol, Sergi; Vı́lchez, Juan Antonio; Casal, Joaquim

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2003.08.010

Cited by 77 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…Navigational collisions account for a substantial portion of major shipping accidents in port waters, as reported by a number of researchers (e.g., 1-5). Furthermore, the increasing growth of world fleet (see, 6) is likely to result in increased traffic movements within busy seaports, which in turn could increase collision likelihood in these congested and restricted waters (5, 7).To address this safety concern some recent studies have focused on port navigational safety issues from different aspects; such as analyses of trends and causes of accidents (2,4,5,8); analyses of injuries and fatalities in port water accidents (1, 2); analyses of involved parties in port water conflicts (7); and modeling accident probabilities (9). These studies analyzed port water incidents to address the general safety issues in port navigation.…”

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confidence: 99%

Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways

Debnath

Chin

2009

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot's perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.Keywords: Navigational collision risk, Risk perception, Fairway, Harbor pilot, Hierarchical regression. Please cite this article as: INTRODUCTIONNavigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Navigational collisions account for a substantial portion of major shipping accidents in port waters, as reported by a number of researchers (e.g., 1-5). Furthermore, the increasing growth of world fleet (see, 6) is likely to result in increased traffic movements within busy seaports, which in turn could increase collision likelihood in these congested and restricted waters (5, 7).To address this safety concern some recent studies have focused on port navigational safety issues from different aspects; such as analyses of trends and causes of accidents (2,4,5,8); analyses of injuries and fatalities in port water accidents (1, 2); analyses of involved parties in port water conflicts (7); and modeling accident probabilities (9). These studies analyzed port water incidents to address the general safety issues in port navigation. To address the behavioral issues in port navigational safety, some studies focused on pilot fatigue (10-12); sleep and watchkeeping (13); mental workload (14); and the pilot's operational relationships and communications with ship crews (15, 16). Despite the extent of works done, little is known about other behavioral issues, particularly on pilot's perception of collision risks.Studying pilot's perception of collision risks is important because risk perception is considered as a precursor of an individual's actual behavior (see 17). Cohn et. al. (18) indicated that risk perception is negatively related to risk behavior in general, i.e., a lower level of perceived risk is associated with a higher probability that a pilot would be involved in such risk. Thus, by examining their perception of risk, the pilot's behavioral characteristics can be understood.This paper aims at examining the relationships between perceived...

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confidence: 99%

Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways

Debnath

Chin

2009

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation R

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“…Such models are essentially an offshoot of empirical models, and rely primarily on past accident data. Ronza et al (2003) and Ellis et al (2008a) used Event Trees, developed using past-accident data, to predict likely future case accidents and consequences. Probabilistic models have been used by the IMO in Formal Safety Assessment studies-not only to predict environmental damage, but also to assess the stability of ships, effectiveness of evacuations and potential loss of lives (IMO 2008).…”

Section: Consequence Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Theoretical Risk Management Framework for Vessels Operating Near Offshore Wind Farms

Mehdi

Schröder-Hinrichs

2016

Mare-Wint

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The design of an offshore wind farm (OWF) can have a major impact on the safety of maritime operations in the vicinity. Factors such as the number of turbines, turbine spacing, and tower design can all have an effect the probability and consequences of various maritime accidents. The current chapter describes the potential effects of offshore wind farms on maritime traffic-particularly in a safety, reliability and risk context. The chapter also reviews existing methods, models and frameworks that can be used to assess the risk to maritime operations. Lastly, the authors propose an improved theoretical risk management framework that addresses some present concerns. The Need for Maritime Risk Management Around Offshore Wind FarmsIn this first section, the status of the OWF industry and the need for maritime risk management around wind farms is described. Trends in the OWF IndustryOver the past few decades, there has been a sharp increase in the use of renewable energy-driven not only by a more mindful society, but also by strong policy instruments and decisions. One of the most popular renewable energy schemes is wind energy. As the demand for energy generation grows, an increasing number of wind turbines are being installed offshore. OWFs offer several advantages over their onshore equivalents. There is better wind resource, and the wind speeds are more consistent out at sea. Potentially, wind turbines can also be scaled up to much

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“…Accidents were classified with regard to the substance involved and the existence of domino effect, and the characteristics of chemical accidents were analyzed. Ronza et al [16] studied 828 accidents happened in port areas from a database and identified the sequences of accidents. Considering the location of accidents, 40% occurred in the sea, and 21% did on land.…”

Section: Involving Domino Accidentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are some research with the two aspects. Ronza et al [16] selected 828 accidents in port areas from a database, which had been used to identify the sequences of accidents. It was found that 7% of accidents involving domino effect had occurred in transportation.…”

Section: Origin and Causes Of Domino Effectmentioning

confidence: 99%

Domino Effect Analysis, Assessment and Prevention in Process Industries

Yang

Cheng

2015

Journal of Systems Science and Information

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Domino effect is a fairly common phenomenon in process industry accidents, which makes many process industry accidents serious and the consequent losses enhanced. Domino effect of the major accidents in chemical cluster is emphasized. Many researchers have studied domino effect in chemical clusters from different perspectives. In the review, we summarize the research from three aspects: The statistical analysis of domino accidents in chemical process industry, the evaluation of domino accidents and the prevention of domino accidents in chemical clusters by game theory. From the analysis, we can find the characteristic of domino accidents such as the time and the location, the origin and causes of domino accidents. The methods of assessing domino effects such as quantitative risk assessment (QRA), Bayesian networks (BN) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are analyzed. The prevention of domino accidents in chemical clusters using game theory is seldom, and there is still much space for improvement in enterprises' efforts to prevent risk of domino accidents.

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Predicting the frequency of accidents in port areas by developing event trees from historical analysis

Cited by 77 publications

References 6 publications

Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways

Hierarchical Modeling of Perceived Collision Risks in Port Fairways

A Theoretical Risk Management Framework for Vessels Operating Near Offshore Wind Farms

Domino Effect Analysis, Assessment and Prevention in Process Industries

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