Predicting the Geographic Distribution of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a/Western North American Sub-Lineage for the Continental United States: New Outbreaks, New Genotypes, and New Climate Data

Yang, Anni; Mullins, J. Thomas; Ert, Matthew Van; Bowen, Richard A.; Hadfield, Ted L.; Blackburn, Jason K.

doi:10.4269/ajtmh.19-0191

Cited by 16 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…We calculated the geographic extent of the presence of B. anthracis to generate the moderate anthrax risk surface based on the commonly used threshold of 5 out of 10 best model agreements from that final subset. In other words, for any pixel predicted by ≥5 best models, we assumed the (potential) presence of the pathogen (Blackburn et al 2007, Fitzpatrick et al 2013, Yang et al 2020 b ). We overlaid the resource selection surface (RSF values ≥5; ≥ fifth equal‐area bin) with the moderate anthrax risk surface to identify where female elk potentially overlap with B. anthracis.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sex‐Specific Elk Resource Selection during the Anthrax Risk Period

et al. 2020

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Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonosis affecting animals and humans globally. In the United States, anthrax outbreaks occur in wildlife and livestock, with frequent outbreaks in native and exotic wildlife species in Texas, livestock outbreaks in the Dakotas, and sporadic mixed outbreaks in Montana. Understanding where pathogen and host habitat selection overlap is essential for anthrax management. Resource selection and habitat use of ungulates may be sex-specific and lead to differential anthrax exposure risks across the landscape for males and females. We evaluated female elk (Cervus canadensis) resource selection in the same study areas as male elk in a previous anthrax risk study to identify risk of anthrax transmission to females and compare transmission risk between females and males. We developed a generalized linear mixed-effect model to estimate resource selection for female elk in southwest Montana during the June to August anthrax transmission risk period. We then predicted habitat selection of female and male elk across the study area and compared selection with the distribution of anthrax risk to identify spatial distributions of potential anthrax exposure for the male and female elk. Female and male elk selected different resources during the anthrax risk period, which resulted in different anthrax exposure areas for females and males. The sex-specific resource selection and habitat use could infer different areas of risk for anthrax transmission, which can improve anthrax and wildlife management and have important public health and economic implications.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sex‐Specific Elk Resource Selection during the Anthrax Risk Period

et al. 2020

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“…The historic practice of adding lime should be avoided ( 17 ). High soil calcium levels, either from the addition of lime or as occur naturally in southwest Texas, are conducive to B. anthracis spore survival ( 6 , 7 ) and increase the likelihood of future outbreaks. The least desirable disposal method is leaving the carcass in place, because scavenging can further disseminate the spores and increase future exposure risks for susceptible animals.…”

Section: Control and Prevention Measuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Transmission routes include cutaneous, ingestion, inhalation, and injection; cutaneous accounts for most (95%) cases worldwide ( 2 , 4 ). In the United States, human risk is primarily associated with handling carcasses of hoofstock that have died of anthrax; the primary risk for herbivores is ingestion of B. anthracis spores that can persist in suitable alkaline soils in a corridor from Texas through Colorado, the Dakotas, and Montana ( 5 – 7 ).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Control and Prevention of Anthrax, Texas, USA, 2019

Sidwa¹,

Salzer²,

Traxler³

et al. 2020

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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T he zoonotic disease anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, has been known to humankind for thousands of years and is endemic to most continents (1-3). It is a naturally occurring disease of herbivores that incidentally infects humans through contact with animals that are ill or have died from anthrax or through contact with B. anthracis-contaminated byproducts such as meat, hides, hair, and wool (4). Transmission routes include cutaneous, ingestion, inhalation, and injection; cutaneous accounts for most (95%) cases worldwide (2,4). In the United States, human risk is primarily associated with handling carcasses of hoofstock that have died of anthrax; the primary risk for herbivores is ingestion of B. anthracis spores that can persist in suitable alkaline soils in a corridor from Texas through Colorado, the Dakotas, and Montana (5-7). The 2 state agencies responsible for anthrax surveillance in Texas are the Texas Department of State Health Services (DSHS) and the Texas Animal Health Commission (TAHC). Samples that are culture-positive for B. anthracis at veterinary reference laboratories are reported to DSHS and TAHC. Veterinarians treating animals with illnesses compatible with anthrax must also report to DSHS and TAHC. Suspected cases of human anthrax are immediately reportable to DSHS. Samples or isolates from human cases are forwarded for identification to local public health reference laboratories. In Texas, animal anthrax cases are most commonly reported from the triangular area bounded by the towns of Uvalde, Ozona, and Eagle Pass (Figure 1), which includes portions of Crockett,

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“…Additionally, this variable contribution estimation approach has recently been applied to understand genetic-environmental associations of the Bacillus anthracis A1. a sub-lineage and predict its geographical distribution in the continental US as a proxy for anthrax risk for this strain (Yang et al, 2020).…”

Section: Garp Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring environmental coverages of species: a new variable contribution estimation methodology for rulesets from the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction

Yang

Gómez

Blackburn

2020

PeerJ

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Variable contribution estimation for, and determination of variable importance within, ecological niche models (ENMs) remain an important area of research with continuing challenges. Most ENM algorithms provide normally exhaustive searches through variable space; however, selecting variables to include in models is a first challenge. The estimation of the explanatory power of variables and the selection of the most appropriate variable set within models can be a second challenge. Although some ENMs incorporate the variable selection rubric inside the algorithms, there is no integrated rubric to evaluate the variable importance in the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP). Here, we designed a novel variable selection methodology based on the rulesets generated from a GARP experiment. The importance of the variables in a GARP experiment can be estimated based on the consideration of the prevalence of each environmental variable in the dominant presence rules of the best subset of models and its coverage. We tested the performance of this variable selection method based on simulated species with both weak and strong responses to simulated environmental covariates. The variable selection method generally performed well during the simulations with over 2/3 of the trials correctly identifying most covariates. We then predict the distribution of Toxostoma rufum (a bird with a cosmopolitan distribution) in the continental United States (US) and apply our variable selection procedure as a real-world example. We found that the distribution of T. rufum could be accurately modeled with 13 or 10 of 21 variables, using an UI cutoff of 0.5 or 0.25, respectively, arriving at parsimonious environmental coverages with good model accuracy. We also provide tools to simulate species distributions for testing ENM approaches using R.

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Predicting the Geographic Distribution of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a/Western North American Sub-Lineage for the Continental United States: New Outbreaks, New Genotypes, and New Climate Data

Cited by 16 publications

References 60 publications

Sex‐Specific Elk Resource Selection during the Anthrax Risk Period

Sex‐Specific Elk Resource Selection during the Anthrax Risk Period

Control and Prevention of Anthrax, Texas, USA, 2019

Exploring environmental coverages of species: a new variable contribution estimation methodology for rulesets from the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction

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