Predicting the Global Distribution of Gryllus bimaculatus Under Climate Change: Implications for Biodiversity and Animal Feed Production

Abstract

The potential range and distribution of insects are greatly impacted by climate change. This study evaluates the potential global shifts in the range of Gryllus bimaculatus (Orthoptera: Gryllidae) under several climate change scenarios. The Global Biodiversity Information Facility provided the location data for G. bimaculatus, which included nineteen bioclimatic layers (bio01–bio19), elevation data from the WorldClim database, and land cover data. For the near future (2021–2040) and far future (2081–2100) under low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM2-MR) and the Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (IPSL-CM6A-LR) were used. Assessing habitat gain, loss, and stability for G. bimaculatus under potential scenarios was part of the evaluation analysis. The results showed that the main environmental parameters affecting the distribution of G. bimaculatus were mean temperature of the driest quarter, mean diurnal temperature range, isothermality, and seasonal precipitation. Since birds, small mammals, and other insectivorous insects rely on G. bimaculatus and other cricket species as their primary food supply, habitat loss necessitates management attention to the effects on the food web. The spread of G. bimaculatus as a sentinel species in the food chain and its use in animal feeds are both impacted by habitat loss and gain.