Predicting the impacts of climate change on potential suitability habitats of three Juniperus trees in Mexico

Pérez-Suárez, Marlín; Ramírez-Albores, Jorge E.; Martínez-Campos, Ángel Roberto

doi:10.1007/s11258-023-01374-6

Plant Ecol

2023

DOI: 10.1007/s11258-023-01374-6

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Predicting the impacts of climate change on potential suitability habitats of three Juniperus trees in Mexico

Marlín Pérez-Suárez,

Jorge E. Ramírez-Albores,

Ángel Roberto Martínez-Campos

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2024

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Cited by 2 publications

References 99 publications

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Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Capricornis milneedwardsii, a vulnerable mammal in China

Zhao,

Shao,

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change significantly impacted on the survival, development, distribution, and abundance of living organisms. The Chinese serow Capricornis milneedwardsii, known as the “four unlike,” is a Class II nationally protected species in China. In this study, we predicted the geographical suitability of C. milneedwardsii under current and future climatic conditions using MaxEnt. The model simulations resulted in area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values above 0.9 for both current and future climate scenarios, indicating the excellent performance, high accuracy, and credibility of the MaxEnt model. The results also showed that annual precipitation (Bio12), slope, elevation, and mean temperature of wettest quarter (Bio8) were the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of C. milneedwardsii, with contributions of 31.2%, 26.4%, 11%, and 10.3%, respectively. The moderately and highly suitable habitats were mainly located in the moist area of China, with a total area of 34.56 × 104 and 16.61 × 104 km2, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, the areas of suitability of C. milneedwardsii showed an increasing trend. The geometric center of the total suitable habitats of C. milneedwardsii would show the trend of northwest expansion and southeast contraction. These findings could provide a theoretical reference for the protection of C. milneedwardsii in the future.

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Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Capricornis milneedwardsii, a vulnerable mammal in China

Zhao,

Shao,

et al. 2024

Ecology and Evolution

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Climatic response of Juniperus monticola Martinez, a multi-century alpine shrub from the high mountains of central Mexico

Vázquez-Selem,

Franco-Ramos,

Villanueva-Díaz

et al. 2024

The Holocene

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The mountain juniper Juniperus monticola Martinez, a decumbent alpine shrub found at elevations up to 4600 m a.s.l. on the high mountains of central Mexico, is the woody species growing at highest elevation in North America. It reaches an age close to a millenium, which probably makes it the oldest alpine shrub in the world. We conducted a dendrochronological study of this species at Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest peak in Mexico, to analyze its dendroclimatic potential and the influence of ocean-atmospheric forcing on the interannual variability of radial growth. A ring-width chronology was developed extending from 1178 to 2016 (839 years). Climate data from a local weather station and from CRU TS version 4.01 were used to determine the climatic response of J. monticola. The species is positively correlated to the average maximum temperature of May–June ( r = 0.38, p < 0.05) and negatively to the March-April precipitation ( r = −0.44, p < 0.05) of the local weather station. Gridded drought indices (PDSI, SPEI) were used to analyze the combined effect of rising temperatures and evapotranspiration on ring-width. A significant negative response ( r = −0.354, p < 0.01) was found between the instrumental PDSI records (June, July, August) and the ring-width series; similarly, a negative correlation was obtained for the SPEI from December of the previous year to June of the current year ( r = −0.4, p < 0.01). These negative correlations suggest that higher temperatures occurring in recent decades are favoring increases in radial growth. The ring-width chronology is significantly correlated, although weakly, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, consistent with the influence of those phenomena on PDSI and SPEI over central Mexico.

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Predicting the impacts of climate change on potential suitability habitats of three Juniperus trees in Mexico

Cited by 2 publications

References 99 publications

Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Capricornis milneedwardsii, a vulnerable mammal in China

Potential impact of climate change on the distribution of Capricornis milneedwardsii, a vulnerable mammal in China

Climatic response of Juniperus monticola Martinez, a multi-century alpine shrub from the high mountains of central Mexico

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