Predicting the magnitude and timing of peak electricity demand: A competition case study

Abstract

As weather dependence of the electricity network grows, there is an increasing need to predict the time at which the network peak load will occur. Improving forecasts of peak hour can lead to more accurate scheduling of generation as well as the ability to use flexibility to improve system utilisation or defer capital investment. While there are extensive benchmark models for forecasting electricity demand, their efficacy at forecasting the time or shape of the peak remains to be seen. Global forecasting competitions provide a unique opportunity to compare multiple methodologies under common performance criteria and incentives. The methodology and results are detailed from the Big Data and Energy Analytics Laboratory Challenge 2022 used by the team ‘peaky‐finders’ and investigates the suitability of using hourly methods to forecast daily peak magnitude, time, and shape. The resulting approach provides a reproducible ensemble benchmark against which to evaluate more complex methods. Results indicate that simple regression techniques can perform well and outperform more complicated methods during seasons with low hourly variability, however ensemble methods show higher accuracy overall. The results also highlight the significant impact of extreme weather on forecast accuracy, demonstrating the importance of forecasting processes that are resilient to extreme weather.