Predicting the Next Outbursts of OJ 287 in 2006–2010

Valtonen, M. J.; Lehto, H. J.; Sillanpää, A.; Nilsson, K.; Mikkola, Seppo; Hudec, R.; Bašta, Milan; Teräsranta, H.; Haque, Shirin; Rampadarath, H.

doi:10.1086/504884

Cited by 118 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…There is a gap in the new measurements, but we have several interesting upper limits in the spring of 1906 (see also (Valtonen et al 2010). The observed peak at 1910 cannot be the direct result of the disk impact in that year, but it is more likely a "precursor" (Valtonen et al 2006). Precursors first occur when the secondary approaches the primary disk at the level of about 20 disk scale heights.…”

Section: Historical 1900 and 1913 Outbursts From The Point Of View Ofmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…This is possible because the sampling of the previously known light curve of OJ 287 is quite dense, therefore several previously known magnitudes overlap in time with the dates of measurements from plates. For this purpose, we used the OJ287 database presented by Valtonen et al (2006), excluding suspicious points. We have to be aware of two important problems with this approach:…”

Section: Determining the Color Correction For Oj287mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The historical 1900 and 1913 outbursts of the binary blazar candidate OJ287

Hudec

Bašta

Pihajoki

et al. 2013

A&A

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Section: Historical 1900 and 1913 Outbursts From The Point Of View Ofmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Determining the Color Correction For Oj287mentioning

confidence: 99%

The historical 1900 and 1913 outbursts of the binary blazar candidate OJ287

Hudec

Bašta

Pihajoki

et al. 2013

A&A

Self Cite

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“…et al (1988) originally argued that tidal forces from the secondary black hole around the pericenter of its orbit will lead to an increased accretion rate for the primary black hole and thus result in an outburst. Lehto & Valtonen (1996) proposed that the secondary black hole plunges into and through the accretion disk of the primary before and after the pericenter, resulting in the double outburst observed in the light curves (see also Valtonen et al 2006). This procedure however, as argued by Valtaoja et al (2000), is thermal and should not produce an outburst in the radio regime; thus it seems unlikely for the case of 0716+714.…”

Section: Correlation Between Kinematics and Flux-density Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Non-radial motion in the TeV blazar S5 0716+714

Britzen¹,

Kam²,

Witzel³

et al. 2009

A&A

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Context. Flat-spectrum radio sources often show a core-jet structure on pc-scales. Individual jet components reveal predominantly outward directed motion. For the BL Lac object S5 0716+714 conflicting apparent velocities have been reported in the literature. This object is an intra-day variable source and suited to investigate a possible correlation between kinematic properties and flux-density variability on different timescales. Aims. We study the kinematics in the pc-scale jet of S5 0716+714 to determine the apparent speeds of the jet components based on a much improved data set. In addition, we search for correlations between the radio flux-density light curves and the morphological changes detected along the VLBI jet. Methods. We (re-)analyze 50 VLBI observations obtained with the VLBA at 5 different frequencies (5-43 GHz) between 1992.73 and 2006.32. The data have been parameterized using circular Gaussian components. We analyze the jet component motion in detail taking care not only to account for motion in the radial but also in the orthogonal direction. We study the evolution of the jet ridge line and investigate the spectral properties of the individual components. We search for correlations between radio band light curves and the kinematic properties of the jet components. Results. We present an alternative kinematic scenario for jet component motion in S5 0716+714. We present evidence for the apparent stationarity of jet components (with regard to their core separation) with time. Jet components, however, do seem to move significantly non-radially with regard to their position angle and in a direction perpendicular to the major axis of the jet. We discuss a possible correlation between the long-term radio flux-density variability and apparent jet component motions. Conclusions. In S5 0716+714 an alternative motion scenario is proposed. With regard to the core separation, rather stationary components can fit the VLBI observations well. A new model to explain the observed motion with regard to the position angle is required. Based on the correlation between the longterm radio flux-density variability and the position angle evolution of a jet component, we conclude that a geometric contribution to the origin of the long-term variability might not be negligible. Subluminal motion has been reported for most of the TeV blazars. Our analysis also confirms this finding for the case of S5 0716+714. This result increases the number of TeV blazars showing apparent subluminal motion to 7.

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“…It has been previously noticed that the optical outbursts lag behind tidal influences in the disk by about three months (Valtonen et al 2006). Considering the distance of the perturbed ring from the central black hole, the speed of transmission of particles from the disk to the jet would be of the order of the orbital speed of the disk.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ability to predict the optical light curve so accurately presents a great challenge to any alternative model. Valtonen et al (2006) showed that at least three different mechanisms have to be included in a satisfactory BBH model for OJ 287: impacts of the secondary BH on the 276 M. J. Valtonen, T. Savolainen & K. Wiikg primary disk, tidal influence on the accretion flow, and the jet wobble. The first mechanism is responsible for the double peak structure of the sharp outbursts, the second one causes flares of longer duration, while the third one is responsible for the 60 yr cycle, with a 12 yr modulation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Jet-disk connection in OJ287

Valtonen¹,

Savolainen²,

Wiik³

2010

Proc. IAU

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Abstract.A model for OJ 287 consisting of two orbiting black holes has been constructed using optical light curve data. The model has successfully predicted the occurrence of sharp optical outbursts of OJ 287 for the past 15 years. Here we test if also the variations in the radio jet position angle can be explained within the framework of this same model, which has most of its parameters fixed by the timing of the optical flares. The model applied here has only three free parameters left, the (trivial) zero point of the jet position angle, the time lag between changes in the disk and jet orientations, and the zero point of the viewing angle. Despite its simplicity and the small number of free parameters, the model appears to be able to reproduce the main properties of the observed position angle variations during the past 30 years. The best fits are obtained when the time lag is either ∼ 4 or ∼ 14 years. However, the jet orientation seems to be unrelated to the direction of the spin of the primary black hole. This implies, assuming that the basic model is correct, that the mean orientation of the jet is determined by the orientation of the inner accretion disk, not by the spin axis of the black hole.

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Predicting the Next Outbursts of OJ 287 in 2006–2010

Cited by 118 publications

References 35 publications

The historical 1900 and 1913 outbursts of the binary blazar candidate OJ287

The historical 1900 and 1913 outbursts of the binary blazar candidate OJ287

Non-radial motion in the TeV blazar S5 0716+714

Jet-disk connection in OJ287

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