Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

Srivastava, Nandita

doi:10.5194/angeo-23-2989-2005

Cited by 19 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The very low statistical significance of severe storms is a key issue for model calibration, that is fed by data mainly from moderate to intense disturbances, due to the lack of severe storms in the sample (Srivastava 2005;Kataoka 2013;Yermolaev et al 2013). Carrington (1859) connected ''two patches of intensely bright and white light'' in a large solar spot with ''a moderate but very marked magnetic disturbance of short duration'' in Kew magnetic records followed by the commencement of a great magnetic storm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On extreme geomagnetic storms

Cid

Palacios

Sáiz

et al. 2014

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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Extreme geomagnetic storms are considered as one of the major natural hazards for technology-dependent society. Geomagnetic field disturbances can disrupt the operation of critical infrastructures relying on space-based assets, and can also result in terrestrial effects, such as the Quebec electrical disruption in 1989. Forecasting potential hazards is a matter of high priority, but considering large flares as the only criterion for early-warning systems has demonstrated to release a large amount of false alarms and misses. Moreover, the quantification of the severity of the geomagnetic disturbance at the terrestrial surface using indices as Dst cannot be considered as the best approach to give account of the damage in utilities. High temporal resolution local indices come out as a possible solution to this issue, as disturbances recorded at the terrestrial surface differ largely both in latitude and longitude. The recovery phase of extreme storms presents also some peculiar features which make it different from other less intense storms. This paper goes through all these issues related to extreme storms by analysing a few events, highlighting the March 1989 storm, related to the Quebec blackout, and the October 2003 event, when several transformers burnt out in South Africa.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On extreme geomagnetic storms

Cid

Palacios

Sáiz

et al. 2014

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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“…However, the characteristics of the solar sources of intense/super-intense geomagnetic storms that influence their interplanetary properties and the mode of their influence are not yet well understood. Recently, a number of studies on solar sources of severe geomagnetic storms have been carried out to understand the solar-terrestrial relationship (Feynman and Gabriel, 2000;Plunkett et al, 2001;Wang et al, 2002;Zhang et al, 2003;Vilmer et al, 2003;Schwenn et al, 2005;Srivastava, 2005). Such understanding can give us important parameters for forecasting the occurrence of intense/super-intense geomagnetic storms well in advance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A logistic regression model for predicting the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms

Srivastava

2005

Ann. Geophys.

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Abstract.A logistic regression model is implemented for predicting the occurrence of intense/super-intense geomagnetic storms. A binary dependent variable, indicating the occurrence of intense/super-intense geomagnetic storms, is regressed against a series of independent model variables that define a number of solar and interplanetary properties of geo-effective CMEs. The model parameters (regression coefficients) are estimated from a training data set which was extracted from a dataset of 64 geo-effective CMEs observed during 1996-2002. The trained model is validated by predicting the occurrence of geomagnetic storms from a validation dataset, also extracted from the same data set of 64 geoeffective CMEs, recorded during 1996-2002, but not used for training the model. The model predicts 78% of the geomagnetic storms from the validation data set. In addition, the model predicts 85% of the geomagnetic storms from the training data set. These results indicate that logistic regression models can be effectively used for predicting the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms from a set of solar and interplanetary factors.

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“…As mentioned above, the 20 November geomagnetic superstorm was a conspicuous exception to almost all established statistical correlations (see, e.g., Yurchyshyn, Hu, and Abramenko, 2005;Srivastava, 2005;Chertok et al, 2013). What is surprising is that it also promises an opportunity to find hints on the causes of the superstorm from its peculiarities.…”

Section: Properties Of the Icmementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The major outcome of the studies is the oddness of the event, which strongly deviated from the established correlations between solar and near-Earth parameters (Yermolaev et al, 2005;Yurchyshyn, Hu, and Abramenko, 2005;Srivastava, 2005;Chertok et al, 2013). In particular, the magnetic cloud (MC) near the Earth carried an exceptionally strong magnetic field of about 56 nT, while its velocity was modest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Challenging Solar Eruptive Event of 18 November 2003 and the Causes of the 20 November Geomagnetic Superstorm. IV. Unusual Magnetic Cloud and Overall Scenario

et al. 2014

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The geomagnetic superstorm of 20 November 2003 with Dst = −422 nT, one of the most intense in history, is not well understood. The superstorm was caused by a moderate solar eruptive event on 18 November, comprehensively studied in our preceding Papers I -III. The analysis has shown a number of unusual and extremely complex features, which presumably led to the formation of an isolated right-handed magnetic-field configuration. Here we analyze the interplanetary disturbance responsible for the 20 November superstorm, compare some of its properties with the extreme 28 -29 October event, and reveal a compact size of the magnetic cloud (MC) and its disconnection from the Sun. Most likely, the MC had a spheromak configuration and expanded in a narrow angle of ≤ 14• . A very strong magnetic field in the MC up to 56 nT was due to the unusually weak expansion of the disconnected spheromak in an enhanced-density environment constituted by the tails of the preceding ICMEs. Additional circumstances favoring the superstorm were (i) the exact impact of the spheromak on the Earth's magnetosphere and (ii) the almost exact southward orientation of the magnetic field, corresponding to the original orientation in its probable source region near the solar disk center.

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Predicting the occurrence of super-storms

Cited by 19 publications

References 30 publications

On extreme geomagnetic storms

On extreme geomagnetic storms

A logistic regression model for predicting the occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms

A Challenging Solar Eruptive Event of 18 November 2003 and the Causes of the 20 November Geomagnetic Superstorm. IV. Unusual Magnetic Cloud and Overall Scenario

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