Predicting the occurrence of venous thromboembolism: construction and verification of Risk Warning Model

Abstract

Background: The onset of venous thromboembolism is insidious and the prognosis is poor. In this study, we aimed to construct a VTE risk early warning model and explore the clinical application value of the VTE risk early warning model. Methods: Preliminary construction of the VTE risk warning model was carried out according to the independent risk warning indicators of VTE screened by Logistic regression analysis in previous studies. The truncated value of screening VTE was obtained and the model was evaluated. ROC curve analysis was used to compare the test performance of Caprini risk assessment scale and VTE risk warning model on VTE. The validation data set was established, and the cut-off value of the VTE risk warning model was used to evaluate the test effectiveness of the model for VTE patients with validation data set. Results: The VTE risk warning model is p = ex / ( 1+ ex ) , x = -4.840 + 2.557 • X10(1) + 1.432 • X14(1) + 2.977 • X15(1) + 3.445 • X18(1) + 1.086 • X25(1) + 0.249 • X34 + 0.282 • X41. ROC curve results show that: AUC (95%CI), cutoff value (95%CI), accuracy, Youden index (95%), sensitivity, specificity and other evaluation indexes, Caprini risk assessment scale is 0.596 (0.552, 0.638), > 5 (> 4, > 5), 61.3%, 0.226 (0.167, 0.290), 26.07%, 96.50%, VTE risk warning model is 0.960 (0.940, 0.976), > 0.438 (> 0.263), respectively. >, 0.504), 92.2%, 0.844 (0.789, 0.879), 92.61%, 91.83%, with statistically significant differences (Z=14.521, P < 0.0001). The accuracy and Youden index of VTE screening using VTE risk warning model were 81.8% and 62.5%, respectively. Conclusions: VTE risk warning model has high accuracy in predicting the occurrence of VTE in hospitalized patients, and its test performance is higher than Caprini risk assessment scale. It also has high test performance for VTE in external population.

A Prediction Model Based on Blood Biomarker for Mortality Risk in Patients with Acute Venous Thromboembolism

“…Most studies to date have focused on predicting the risk of VTE in specific populations. [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14] However, studies of risk variables associated with all-cause mortality and PTS in VTE patients are relatively uncommon, 11,[15][16][17][18] and multivariable clinical prediction models in emergency setting are also rarely reported.…”