Predicting the Potential Distribution of Oxalis debilis Kunth, an Invasive Species in China with a Maximum Entropy Model

Abstract

Oxalis debilis Kunth, an invasive plant native to South America, has already spread extensively throughout various regions in China including West China, East China, Central China, and South China. It poses a certain degree of damage to the local ecosystem and demonstrates significant invasive potential. Utilizing distribution information along with environmental variables such as bioclimate, soil factors, elevation, and UV-B radiation, the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS was employed to forecast the potential distribution of O. debilis in China. The ROC curve was employed to assess the accuracy of the model, while the jackknife test was utilized to identify dominant environmental variables and determine their optimal values. The simulated AUC value was 0.946 ± 0.004, and the predicted results exhibited a remarkable concordance with the actual outcomes, thereby indicating that the Maxent model demonstrated a high level of confidence in its predictive capabilities. The potential distribution of O. debilis in China spanned 18,914,237 km2, accounting for 19.70% of the total land area. This distribution was primarily observed in East, Central, and South China, with Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou being identified as highly suitable habitats for O. debilis. Furthermore, it was observed that the distribution of O. debilis is primarily influenced by environmental variables such as the precipitation of the driest month, the monthly diurnal range, the mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and the isothermality. The findings can serve as a valuable point of reference for the prevention and monitoring of O. debilis spread, thereby contributing to the protection of China’s agricultural, forestry, and ecological environments. It is imperative to acknowledge the hazards associated with O. debilis, closely monitor its invasion, and prevent uncontrolled dissemination.

Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Range Expansion of the Invasive Straggler Daisy (Calyptocarpus vialis) in the Northwestern Indian Himalayan Region

“…The Jackknife test is a tool used to ensure consistent and accurate prediction of the model even in the absence of certain variables, thereby enhancing the overall validity of the model. It identifies the environmental variables influencing the distribution of species [ 51 , 52 , 53 ]. On the other hand, the response curve indicates species responses to specific environmental variables and helps identify a range of variables where species are more likely to thrive.…”

“…On the other hand, the response curve indicates species responses to specific environmental variables and helps identify a range of variables where species are more likely to thrive. It also predicts the suitability of the habitat [ 51 , 53 ]. The current habitat suitability map and potential habitat suitability maps with different RCP scenarios are presented as logistic output.…”

Global Warming Drives Transitions in Suitable Habitats and Ecological Services of Rare Tinospora Miers Species in China

“…To ensure the stability of the model, the model run was repeated ten times using the bootstrap method [44], and the weight of each environmental factor was measured through the jackknife technique. The findings were presented in the logistic format [18,45,46]. The outcomes were grouped into four classifications: highly suitable, moderately suitable, marginally suitable, and unsuitable habitats based on the natural discontinuity classification [47].…”

Prediction of Suitable Habitat of Alien Invasive Plant Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China under Various Climatic Scenarios

“…It can scientifically predict the potential and future suitable distribution areas of species based on only the distribution data of species and environmental data, and even if the distribution data of species are small, the MaxEnt model can also obtain good prediction results. At present, MaxEnt is widely used to predict the potential niche of invasive alien plants, such as sorrel invasion in China [16], giant pigweed invasion in Europe [17] and composite invasive plants in China's suitable areas.…”