Predicting the potential distribution of the Asian citrus psyllid,Diaphorina citri(Kuwayama), in China using the MaxEnt model

Abstract

Background Citrus huanglongbing (HLB) is a destructive disease of citrus and a major threat to the citrus industry around the world. This disease accounts for substantial economic losses in China every year. Diaphorina citri Kuwayama is one of the major vectors by which citrus HLB is spread under natural conditions in China. Research is needed to identify the geographic distribution of D. citri and its major areas of occurrence and to formulate measures for early warning, monitoring, and control of this pest and citrus HLB. Methods In this study, the ecological niche modelling software MaxEnt (maximum entropy model) was combined with ArcGIS (a geographic information system) to predict the potential geographic distribution of D. citri in China. Key environmental factors and the appropriate ranges of their values were also investigated. Results Our results show that the training data provided a good forecast (AUCmean = 0.988). The highly suitable areas for D. citri in China are mainly concentrated to the south of the Yangtze River, and the total area is 139.83 × 104 km2. The area of the moderately suitable areas is 27.71 × 104 km2, with a narrower distribution than that of the highly suitable area. The important environmental factors affecting the distribution of D. citri were min temperature of coldest month, mean temperature of coldest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter, mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of warmest quarter, max temperature of warmest month, and temperature seasonality. These results provide a valuable theoretical basis for risk assessments and control of D. citri. Discussion The predicted results showed that there were highly suitable areas for D. citri in Chongqing, Hubei, Anhui, and Jiangsu. Therefore, the possibility exists for the further spread of D. citri in China in the future. Extreme temperature variables, especially the min temperature of the coldest month, play an important role in the distribution of D. citri and are most closely related to the distribution of D. citri.

Análisis de riesgo potencial de Huanglongbing a través de tecnología geoespacial en Colombia

“…La temperatura es otra variable de relevancia: el rango óptimo para el crecimiento de poblaciones de psílidos es entre 25 °C y 28 °C, y los umbrales en los que no se desarrolla son <10 °C y >33 °C (Liu & Tsai, 2000). En el modelo, la probabilidad de presencia de D. citri disminuye casi a cero cuando la temperatura máxima del mes más cálido es mayor que 34 °C y la temperatura mínima del mes más frío es menor que 10 °C, datos similares a los obtenidos por Wang et al (2019). En cuanto a la isotermalidad, la probabilidad de presencia aumenta hasta un 60 % cuando las temperaturas están entre 26,6 °C y 32,7 °C (Liu & Tsai, 2000).…”

Predicting the Suitable Geographical Distribution of Sinadoxa Corydalifolia under Different Climate Change Scenarios in the Three-River Region Using the MaxEnt Model

“…Sample point data were used alternately for parameter adjustment and validation. Thus, this method inevitably had a negative impact on the accuracy of the results [ 32 , 42 , 44 ].…”

Estimating Potential Distribution of Sweetgum Pest Acanthotomicus suncei and Potential Economic Losses in Nursery Stock and Urban Areas in China

“…Nineteen environmental variables were implemented in the initial model ( Table S1 ). As multiple collinearity may exist among the environmental variables, the variables were screened according to the percentage contribution and Pearson correlation coefficients between any two variables ( Table S2 ) [ 18 ]. We removed the factors for which the absolute value of Pearson’s correlation coefficient is greater than or equal to 0.8 from the Pearson correlation coefficient table.…”