Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Thrips palmi in Korea, using the CLIMEX model

Abstract

Thrips palmi Karny, melon thrips was introduced and first recorded in 1993 in Korea. This species has become a serious pest of vegetable and ornamental crops. The CLIMEX simulation was applied to T. palmi to predict its potential geographic distribution in Korea under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. In the CLIMEX simulation, the ecoclimatic index was calculated, and compared in each simulated year and each simulated location. The map comparisons show good agreements between simulated and present distributions of T. palmi, indicating that the CLIMEX model has promising potential for prediction of future distributions of this species in Korea. In the near future, until the year 2020, all the western and eastern parts of Korea show favorable to marginal suitability for T. palmi populations in the fields. After the year 2040, potential distributions shift from no persistence to favorable for establishment and persistence from coastal to interior regions of the Korean peninsula, except for a north-eastern interior region which is the northernmost part of a high mountainous (Baekdu-Daegan) area in Korea. Based on the simulation results, the geographical distribution of T. palmi will expand over its current weather restrictions in the near future under a severe climate change scenario. Thus, pest management measures and strategies should be re-evaluated in Korea, and should include further studies on interspecific competition and ecosystem changes due to climate changes.

A novel approach in analyzing agriculture and food systems: Review of modeling and its applications

“…Based on this software, the risk to the agricultural sector caused by invasive pests has been assessed and biological control has been tested. This supports the application of software-based predictive modeling in the field of agriculture (Park et al, 2014).…”

“…Lactose operon and its feedback regulation are historically famous in mathematical modeling (Vilar et al, 2003;Wong et al, 1997;Yildirim and Mackey, 2003). Besides the aforementioned classical usages of dynamic modeling in systems biology, many other targets have been dynamically analyzed by mathematical modeling, such as calcium homeostasis (Peterson and Riggs, 2010;Raposo et al, 2002), calcium metabolic changes due to perturbations , specific types of cells including bone cells (Komarova, 2005;Lemaire et al, 2004;Pivonka et al, 2010) and mammary gland cells (Hanigan and Baldwin, 1994), lignin biosynthesis in plants (Faraji et al, 2015;, and population dynamics with consideration of climate (Park et al, 2014;Poutsma et al, 2008;Sutherst and Maywald, 1985).…”

“…In particular, recent highlights of the world's climate change coupled with intensive interactions between nations have demonstrated the increased risk of introducing invasive species that may lead to disease dispersion and the destruction of local agriculture and ecosystem. CLIMEX is considered to be a powerful tool for risk assessment and for the establishment of a strategy for preventing the above risk (Park et al, 2014;Poutsma et al, 2007).…”

Insect distribution in response to climate change based on a model: Review of function and use of CLIMEX

“…2007a,b; Park et al . ). CLIMEX has been used to establish the fundamental habitat of a species (Wharton & Kriticos ) to identify the relationship between pest survival and climate (Sutherst & Maywald ), and to develop a predictive model for the distribution of a pest in response to specific climatic conditions (Kocmánková et al .…”

“…An exception is a study by Park et al . (). There is a very well‐established manual for CLIMEX (Sutherst et al .…”