Predicting the Risk of Hantavirus Infection in Beijing, People’s Republic of China

Abstract

To understand the spatial distribution of hantavirus infections across landscapes and its influencing environment factors in Beijing, People's Republic of China, rodents captured in this region were examined for hantavirus by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction. A total of 1,639 rodents were trapped at 86 randomly selected sites. The overall infection rate for hantavirus was 7.14% in the rodents. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the natural infection rates for hantavirus in rodents were significantly associated with rice agriculture (odds ratio [OR] = 2.88, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.27-30.70), orchards (OR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.02-5.96), and moderate elevation (OR = 9.83, 95% CI = 2.22-43.55). A risk map was constructed on the basis of these significant factors to predict extension and transmission of infection with hantavirus in this region.

Association between Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome Epidemic and Climate Factors in Heilongjiang Province, China

“…6,7,11,12 Some studies found that temperature had a positive effect, 6,11 and others found a negative effect on HFRS incidence. 7,12,13 The present study showed that monthly maximum temperature was positively associated with the monthly number of HFRS cases in this province, and other temperature factors, such as monthly minimum temperature and monthly mean temperature, were not included in the final model.…”

“…14 Studies in different areas have suggested that climate factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, may influence the incidence of HFRS. [6][7][8] However, the role of climate factors in the transmission of HFRS differs in different regions. 4,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12] For example, increased grass seed production followed by heavy precipitation, as a result of the El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), was found to be associated with higher Peromyscus maniculatus rodent density in southwestern United States and provides reservoirs for Sin Nombre virus.…”

“…[6][7][8] However, the role of climate factors in the transmission of HFRS differs in different regions. 4,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12] For example, increased grass seed production followed by heavy precipitation, as a result of the El Niñ o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), was found to be associated with higher Peromyscus maniculatus rodent density in southwestern United States and provides reservoirs for Sin Nombre virus. 13,[15][16][17] However, this result was not duplicated in other areas in the United States.…”

“…8,20 In addition, temperature, vegetation type, land use, and ENSO have been shown to be associated with the transmission of HFRS in China. 4,6,7,21 Therefore, climate variables related to rodent population dynamics may serve as indicators for the risk of HFRS transmission in humans. [22][23][24] Heilongjiang Province, which is a cold area in northeastern China, was the first identified epidemic foci of HFRS in China.…”

“…5,6 Although the infection rate and population dynamics of rodents are believed to be influenced by climatic factors, [7][8][9][10][11][12][13] the association between climate and host populations is complex in most places. 14 Studies in different areas have suggested that climate factors, such as temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, may influence the incidence of HFRS.…”