Predicting the spread of all invasive forest pests in the United States

Hudgins, Emma J.; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Leung, Brian; Early, Regan

doi:10.1111/ele.12741

Cited by 72 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…Reducing the risk of human‐mediated dispersal at long distances, posed primarily by transport of wood, thus remains important, and the pattern and consequences of this type of dispersal could be investigated in future enrichment of our modelling framework. This further work could also build on previous studies on the human‐mediated spread of the PWN and other invaders (Hudgins et al., ; Pukkala, Möykkynen, & Robinet, ; Robinet et al., ), that have shown how a stochastic modelling component can accommodate random long‐distance dispersal events, such as accidental long‐distance transport of an invader, while accounting for driving factors such as the density and spatial distribution of roads, wood industries, and human population. Finally, future applications of our approach, dealing either with natural or human‐mediated dispersal, could incorporate recent results on the different susceptibility of pine species to the PWN (Pimentel et al., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Predicting the spread of an invasive tree pest: The pine wood nematode in Southern Europe

Fuente

Saura

Beck

2018

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Invasive tree pests are increasingly threatening forest ecosystems. Understanding and controlling their spread presents a major challenge for managers, researchers, and policy makers. In 1999, the pine wood nematode (PWN) Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, causal agent of pine wilt disease and native to North America, was first detected in Europe, more precisely in south‐western Portugal. Since then, it has spread to more than 30% of the country, producing large‐scale damages in Portuguese forests. We applied a new spatio‐temporal network‐based model to predict, at yearly intervals, the natural spread of the PWN on the Iberian Peninsula, as dispersed by the longhorn beetle Monochamus galloprovincialis, its only known vector in Europe. We compared the model predictions with independent observations of the natural spread of pine wilt disease in Portugal between 2005 and 2015. We simulated the effect of potential containment measures on the disease spread. The model predicted the status (infected or non‐infected) of forest areas with 93% accuracy, had 93% sensitivity and specificity, and AUC = 0.96 (averages for 8 years with validation data). Simulated clear‐cut belts stopped the spread only if they were wider than 30 km, although thinner belts delayed invasion. Furthermore, clear‐cuts were much more effective in slowing down the invasion when reinforced, in the adjacent areas, by the reduction in the vector beetle population through mass trapping and by the early detection and removal of infected trees. Model projections identified areas through which the nematode is most likely to invade, by natural means, the phytosanitary buffer zone established along the Portuguese border, and Spain. Synthesis and applications. In the absence of effective containment measures, the pine wood nematode may naturally spread into Spain in about 5 years. In less than 10 years, it may reach the major forest and climatic corridors that provide a gateway for subsequent expansion towards the rest of the Iberian Peninsula and, in the longer term, towards other European countries. Our model can considerably support management efforts by forecasting when areas are at highest risk of vector‐mediated invasion as well as the effects of specific control measures on the disease spread.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Predicting the spread of an invasive tree pest: The pine wood nematode in Southern Europe

Fuente

Saura

Beck

2018

Journal of Applied Ecology

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“…These 6,280 species distributions provide the building blocks for further ecological analyses, for instance, predicting faunal occurrences (Hudgins et al. ), defining connectivity across landscapes (García‐Feced et al. ), or yielding information on targeted species (e.g., Anacardium excelsum , predicted to cover 25% of Panama, and ranked in the top five species for carbon storage in Panama; Melgarejo et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new baseline for countrywide α‐diversity and species distributions: illustration using >6,000 plant species in Panama

Leung

Hudgins

Potapova

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Estimating α‐diversity and species distributions provides baseline information to understand factors such as biodiversity loss and erosion of ecosystem services. Yet, species surveys typically cover a small portion of any country's landmass. Public, global databases could help, but contain biases. Thus, the magnitude of bias should be identified and ameliorated, the value of integration determined, and application to current policy issues illustrated. The ideal integrative approach should be powerful, flexible, efficient, and conceptually straightforward. We estimated distributions for >6,000 species, integrating species sightings (S) from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), systematic survey data (S2), and “bias‐adjustment kernels” (BaK) using spatial and species trait databases (S2BaK). We validated our approach using both locational and species holdout sets, and then applied our predictive model to Panama. Using sightings alone (the most common approach) discriminated relative probabilities of occurrences well (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.88), but underestimated actual probabilities by ~4,000%, while using survey data alone omitted over three‐quarters of the >6,000 species. Comparatively, S2BaK had no systematic underestimation, and substantially stronger discrimination (AUC = 0.96) and predictive power (deviance explained = 47%). Our model suggested high diversity (~200% countrywide mean) where urban development is projected to occur (the Panama Canal watershed) and also suggested this is not due to higher sampling intensity. However, portions of the Caribbean coast and eastern Panama (the Darién Gap) were even higher, both for total plant biodiversity (~250% countrywide mean), and CITES listed species. Finally, indigenous territories appeared half as diverse as other regions, based on survey observations. However, our model suggested this was largely due to site selection, and that richness in and out of indigenous territories was roughly equal. In brief, we provide arguably the best estimate of countrywide plant α‐diversity and species distributions in the Neotropics, and make >6,000 species distributions available. We identify regions of overlap between development and high biodiversity, and improve interpretation of biodiversity patterns, including for policy‐relevant CITES species, and locations with limited access (i.e., indigenous territories). We derive a powerful, flexible, efficient and simple estimation approach for biodiversity science.

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“…Relatively simple models have proven effective in explaining patterns of invasions, for example in forest pests (Hudgins, Liebhold, & Leung, ). To verify that the additional complexity of a joint model, with propagule pressure, environment and species traits (henceforth termed PET model), was worthwhile for the aquarium pathway, we compared the PET model to six simpler alternatives, four of which respectively included species traits only, environmental conditions only, both traits and environment, and propagule pressure only and two combining propagule pressure (PP) either with the environment or with species traits.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The rich get richer: Invasion risk across North America from the aquarium pathway under climate change

Venezia

Samson

Leung

2017

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim To evaluate how the establishment risk of freshwater fish species from the aquarium trade will change under a climate change scenario forecast for the year 2050. Location North America. Methods In order to estimate changes in the magnitude of risk across geography and across different species in the aquarium pathway, we considered an integrated approach to modelling the probability of establishment, which simultaneously included proxies of propagule pressure, environmental variables, species traits and interactions between environment and traits. We then used the parameters of our model to predict how the risk of establishment will change under a scenario of climate change forecast for the year 2050. Results Our joint model performed better than submodels, suggesting that combining all components is worthwhile. The most predictive factors were precipitation, maximum temperature tolerance, maximum fish length and minimum temperature. Our joint model forecasted a 40% increase in the average risk of establishment by 2050 in the United States. In contrast to our expectations, the absolute establishment risk associated with this pathway remained very low for the entire suite of species in the aquarium trade in northern regions, such as Quebec, Canada. Instead, Florida, which has one of the highest current risks of establishment, was also forecasted to have the greatest absolute risk increase. Main conclusions Our methodology for risk assessment allows invasive species management strategies to consider entire suites of species at a time and to forecast establishment risk for each species and location. While the aquarium pathway is likely to become more important for the United States, the Quebec government should prioritize other pathways of introduction in its exotic invasive species strategy. Our approach can be extended to be applied to different sets of species pertaining to the same or different pathways.

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Predicting the spread of all invasive forest pests in the United States

Cited by 72 publications

References 59 publications

Predicting the spread of an invasive tree pest: The pine wood nematode in Southern Europe

Predicting the spread of an invasive tree pest: The pine wood nematode in Southern Europe

A new baseline for countrywide α‐diversity and species distributions: illustration using >6,000 plant species in Panama

The rich get richer: Invasion risk across North America from the aquarium pathway under climate change

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