Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

Zhao, Dandan; He, Hong S.; Wang, Wen J.; Wang, Lei; Du, Haibo; Li, Kai; Zong, Shengwei

doi:10.3390/su10030863

Cited by 29 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Time series of the natural wetlands and Tonghu detected the influence of the original surface hydraulic linkages and geomorphology characteristics on the wetland distribution [23], which were identified by the historical change detection module of the TVWSUE methodology. Unlike the static models of previous studies, which assumed a constant influence of human activity [26][27][28][29], our time-varying regression model dynamically simulated wetland loss under the impact of urban expansion. Thus, the TVWSUE performed much better in its forecasting ability of wetland loss, showing good spatial consistency between simulated wetland probabilities and actual wetland loss ( Figure 6 and Table 6).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling Intersecting Processes of Wetland Shrinkage and Urban Expansion by a Time-Varying Methodology

Yi-meng

2019

Sustainability

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Continuous urban expansion worldwide has resulted in significant wetland degradation and loss. A limited number of studies have addressed the coupling of wetland and urban dynamics, but this relationship remains unclear. In this study, a time-varying methodology of predicting wetland distribution was developed to support decision-making. The novelty of the methodology is its ability to dynamically simulate wetland shrinkage together with urban expansion and reveal conflicts and potential tradeoffs under different scenarios. The developed methodology consists of three modules: a historical change detection of wetland and urban areas module, a spatial urban sprawl simulation and forecasting module that can accommodate different development priorities, and a wetland distribution module with time-varying logistic regression. The methodology was applied and tested in the Tonghu Wetland as a case study. The wetland and urban extents presented a spatially intersecting shift, where wetlands lost more than 40% of their area from 1977 to 2017, while urban areas expanded by 10-fold, threatening wetlands. The increase in the relative importance metric of the time-varying regression model indicated an enhanced influence of urban expansion on the wetland. An accuracy assessment validated a robust statistical result and a good visual fit between spatially distributed wetland occurrence probabilities and the actual distribution of wetland. Incorporating the new variable of urban expansion improved modeling performance and, particularly, realized a greater ability to predict potential wetland loss than provided by the traditional method. Future wetland loss probabilities were visualized under different scenarios. The historical trend scenario predicted continuously expanding urban growth and wetland shrinkage to 2030. However, a specific urban development strategy scenario was designed interactively to control the potential wetland loss. Consideration of such scenarios can facilitate identifying tradeoffs to support wetland conservation.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, the models that have been developed and applied recently project changes in wetlands [24,[28][29][30][31] and urban extents [36,37] separately. Urban expansion has been simulated by extensive models, such as cellular automata, artificial neural networks, fractal geometry, linear/logistic regression, and agent-based models [38].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Intersecting Processes of Wetland Shrinkage and Urban Expansion by a Time-Varying Methodology

Yi-meng

2019

Sustainability

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“…MDA quantified variable importance through measuring the change in RF prediction accuracy, when the variable values were randomly permuted compared to original observations [ 76 , 77 ]. The larger MDA value denoted that the variable was more important [ 78 ]. Furthermore, we used random forest model to calculate the MDA of environmental factors for different forest swamp conversions.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Distribution and Driving Factors of Forest Swamp Conversions in a Cold Temperate Region

Zhao

Wang

et al. 2018

IJERPH

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Forest swamps are widely distributed in cold temperate regions, with important landscape and ecological functions. They are prone to conversion caused by complex factors. Forest swamp conversions involve forest swamping, meadow swamping, water body swamping, and conversion to farmland. An understanding of the landscape characteristics and primary environmental factors driving forest swamp conversions is imperative for exploring the mechanism of forest swamp conversions. We investigated the landscape characteristics of forest swamp conversions and quantified the relative importance of environmental factors driving these conversions for the period from 1990 to 2015 in the Great Xing’an Mountains of China. We found that forest swamping displayed high patch numbers (34,916) and density (8.51/100 ha), commonly occurring at the edge of large areas of forests. Meadow swamping was localized with low patch numbers (3613) and density (0.88/100 ha) due to lack of water recharge from ground water. Water body swamping had complex shapes (perimeter area ratio mean = 348.32) because of water table fluctuations and helophyte growth during this conversion process. Conversions to farmland presented fairly regular (perimeter area ratio mean = 289.91) and aggregated (aggregation index = 67.82) characteristics affected by agricultural irrigation and management. We found that climatic and geomorphic factors were relatively important compared to topographic factors for forest swamp conversions. Negative geomorphic conditions provided the waterlogging environment as a precondition of swamp formation. Sufficient precipitation was an important source of water recharge due to the existence of permafrost regions and long-term low temperature reduced the evaporation of swamps water and the decomposition rate of organisms. These wet and cold climatic conditions promoted forest swamp development in cold temperate regions. Humans exerted a relatively important role in forest swamping and conversions to farmland. Fire disturbance and logging accelerated the conversion from forest to swamp. This study provides scientific information necessary for the management and conservation of forest swamp resources in cold temperate regions.

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“…The wetland ecosystems of the mid-and high-latitudes account for about 64% of the naturally occurring wetlands worldwide [1], and play an important role in flood protection, streamflow maintenance, biodiversity and human health [2,3]. However, approximately 87% of global wetlands have been lost since the 18th century [4] and wetland loss has been particularly severe in mid-high latitude regions and continues to be threatened [1]. It has been widely reported that the loss of wetland results in great adverse impacts on the ecosystem's goods and services, and global wetlands will continue to disappear in the future [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying the Relative Importance of Climate Change and Human Activities on Selected Wetland Ecosystems in China

Dang

Zhao

et al. 2020

Sustainability

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Climate change and human activities are important factors driving changes in wetland ecosystems. It is therefore crucial to quantitatively characterize the relative importance of these stressors in wetlands. Previous such analyses have generally not distinguished between wetland types, or have focused on individual wetland types. In this study, three representative wetland areas of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the Heilongjiang River Basin (HRB) were selected as the study area. An object-based classification was used with Landsat TM data to extract the spatial distribution of wetland in 1990, 2000 and 2010. We then quantified the relative importance of climate change and human activities on the wetlands by using the R package “relaimpo” package. The results indicated that: (1) the effects of human activities on wetland changes were greater (contribution rate of 63.57%) than climate change in the HRB. Specifically, there were differences in the relative importance of climate change and human activities for wetlands in different regions. Wetlands of the upper reaches were more affected by climate change, while wetlands in the middle and lower reaches were more affected by human activities; (2) climate change had a greater impact (contribution rate of 65.72%) on low intensity wetland loss, while human activities had a greater impact on moderate and severe intensity wetland loss, with respective contribution rates of 57.22% and 70.35%; (3) climate change had a larger effect on the shrub and forested wetland changes, with respective contribution rates of 58.33% and 52.58%. However, human activities had a larger effect on herbaceous wetland changes, with a contribution rate of 72.28%. Our study provides a useful framework for wetland assessment and management, and could be a useful tool for developing wetland utilization and protection approaches, particularly in sensitive environments in mid- and high-latitude areas.

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Predicting Wetland Distribution Changes under Climate Change and Human Activities in a Mid- and High-Latitude Region

Cited by 29 publications

References 57 publications

Modeling Intersecting Processes of Wetland Shrinkage and Urban Expansion by a Time-Varying Methodology

Modeling Intersecting Processes of Wetland Shrinkage and Urban Expansion by a Time-Varying Methodology

Distribution and Driving Factors of Forest Swamp Conversions in a Cold Temperate Region

Quantifying the Relative Importance of Climate Change and Human Activities on Selected Wetland Ecosystems in China

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