Predicting Which Species Succeed in Climate-Forced Polar Seas

Morley, Simon A.; Barnes, David K. A.; Dünn, Michael J.

doi:10.3389/fmars.2018.00507

Cited by 35 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 107 publications

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“…There are few similar studies from high latitudes (but see Morley et al, 2019 for Antarctic waters), mainly due to limited information about species ranges and physiological tolerances, and regional models powerful enough to project environmental parameters into the future. As more data become available and models are developed, the tools we used here can be improved, and predictions refined.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These changes were attributed to temperature, but it is unclear whether they were direct tolerance effects or something more indirect. It is important to note, however, that some high-latitude taxa have very narrow temperature ranges over which they occur, making them particularly vulnerable to climate-driven changes (Pörtner et al, 2014;Morley et al, 2019).…”

Section: Roles Of Niche-defining Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A second basis for high Arctic sensitivity is the idea that polar organisms have narrow environmental tolerance ranges, e.g., a "stenothermal" characteristic due to low energy-demand lifestyles and specific adaptations to cold water (Pörtner et al, 2014;Morley et al, 2019). We can test this by considering the 2.5−97.5% ranges in bottom water temperature and aragonite saturation state at the sampled presence points as tolerance metrics for each species (Figures 5C,D).…”

Section: Surprising Robustness Of Habitat Suitabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Arctic Sensitivity? Suitable Habitat for Benthic Taxa Is Surprisingly Robust to Climate Change

et al. 2019

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Arctic marine ecosystems are often assumed to be highly vulnerable to ongoing climate change, and are expected to undergo significant shifts in structure and function. Community shifts in benthic fauna are likely to result from changes in key physicochemical drivers, such as ocean warming, but there is little ecological data on most Arctic species to support any specific predictions as to how vulnerable they are, or how future communities may be structured. We used a species distribution modeling approach (MaxEnt) to project changes over the 21st century in suitable habitat area for different species of benthic fauna by combining presence observations from the OBIS database with environmental data from a coupled climate-ocean model (SINMOD). Projected mean % habitat losses over taxonomic groups were small (0-11%), and no significant differences were found between Arctic, boreal, or Arcto-boreal groups, or between calcifying and non-calcifying groups. However, suitable habitat areas for 14 of 78 taxa were projected a change by over 20%, and several of these taxa are characteristic and/or habitat-forming fauna on some Arctic shelves, suggesting a potential for significant ecosystem impacts. These results highlight the weakness of general statements regarding vulnerability of taxa on biogeographic or presumed physiological grounds, and suggest that more basic biological data on Arctic taxa are needed for improved projections of ecosystem responses to climate change.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Roles Of Niche-defining Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Surprising Robustness Of Habitat Suitabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Arctic Sensitivity? Suitable Habitat for Benthic Taxa Is Surprisingly Robust to Climate Change

et al. 2019

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“…There are significant uncertainties associated with such projections, and other studies suggest that the krill stock could benefit from enhanced larval habitat and primary production (Melbourne-Thomas et al, 2016;Tulloch et al, 2018). Nonetheless, there is strong evidence to suggest that the overall lifecycle of Antarctic krill is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, and concern about the potential ecosystem consequences of climate driven changes in the krill stock (Flores et al, 2012;McBride et al, 2014;Morley et al, 2019). Given their role as major consumers of Antarctic krill and alternative prey for many of its vertebrate predators, there is a need to explore these consequences for myctophids and their predators.…”

Section: Impact Of Ocean-warming On Food Web Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Myctophid Fish (Family Myctophidae) Are Central Consumers in the Food Web of the Scotia Sea (Southern Ocean)

et al. 2019

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Myctophids are the most abundant and diverse mesopelagic fishes in the Southern Ocean. They are a conduit of energy between primary consumers and higher marine predators, and between the surface layers and the mesopelagic depths. However, there remain major uncertainties about their ecology, particularly regarding their role in Southern Ocean food webs in waters south of the Antarctic Polar Front, which are often regarded as dominated by Antarctic krill. Limited data on the feeding ecology of myctophids has made it difficult to assess the importance of myctophids as consumers of krill and how they fit in the traditional view of a krill-dominated system (diatom-krillhigher predator). We provide a new assessment of the role of myctophids in Southern Ocean food webs using information from recent trophodynamic studies of myctophids conducted in the Scotia Sea, one of the most productive regions of the Southern Ocean and a region that sustains both major populations of higher predators (sea birds, seals, whales) and important commercial fisheries (krill, toothfish, and mackerel icefish). Collectively, these data show that myctophids have a central role in Southern Ocean food webs as both predators and prey. Large myctophid species are prevalent consumers of krill throughout their distributional range and in different seasons in the Scotia Sea. Moreover, best estimates of both myctophid and higher predator consumption of krill to date indicate that large myctophids are the greatest predators of krill in this region, consuming almost as much krill as do all other vertebrates. Nevertheless, there are several smaller myctophid species that do not eat krill, instead consuming copepods and other small euphausiids. Myctophids therefore link primary producers to higher predators through both krill-dependent and krill-independent trophic pathways, emphasizing their importance in regional food webs. Consequently, trophic pathways involving large myctophids are unlikely to be exempt from the direct consequences of projected redistribution and/or reduction in krill population biomass under scenarios of ocean-warming, whilst trophic pathways involving small myctophids may be more resilient to such effects and become increasingly important to higher trophic levels. Further studies are required to determine the extent to which myctophids can maintain food web stability and sustain higher predator populations Frontiers in Marine Science | www.frontiersin.org 1 September 2019 | Volume 6 | Article 530 Saunders et al. Trophodynamics of Scotia Sea Myctophidsduring periods of prolonged reductions in krill abundance. Including knowledge of the role of myctophids in Southern Ocean food webs will be important for developing robust projections of the impacts of future change to inform decision making for conservation and management.

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“…Climate variability and change in the marine environment are emerging issues that have been reported to affect a wide range of species in different ways 1 – 4 . Signs of climate change include changes in air and sea surface temperatures, a rise in the absolute mean sea level, changes in salinity, ocean acidification, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, among others 5 . All of these signs are causing shifts in the abundance and distribution of several species, loss of habitat and changes in survival rates and breeding success.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vulnerability of a top marine predator to coastal storms: a relationship between hydrodynamic drivers and stranding rates of newborn pinnipeds

Sepúlveda

Quiñones

Esparza

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

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Coastal storms have increased in recent decades, affecting many species, including the South American sea lion (Otaria byronia). Reports of stranded sea lion pups are becoming common in Chile, presumably due to the increase in the frequency and intensity of coastal storms. to validate this assumption, a 10-year database was built by coupling wave generation and coastal propagation models to correlate pure wave parameters (significant wave height Hs, peak period Tp, normalized wave power Hs 2 Tp) and wave parameters including the tidal level (maximum surface elevation η, modified wave power η 2 Tp) with records of stranded pups in Cobquecura, the largest breeding colony in central chile. the correlation between the number of pups stranded per day and wave parameters in the first half of January and the last half of February is poor, while they are stronger for the second half of January and the first half of February. The higher number of stranded pups coincide with coastal storms with normalized wave power values exceeding a threshold of 100 m 2 /s. Conversely, below this threshold there is wide dispersion between the number of strandings and wave parameters. identifying wave parameter thresholds could be used to predict when newborn pups will be most affected by coastal storms, and thus help institutions to develop remediation techniques for animals at risk. Climate variability and change in the marine environment are emerging issues that have been reported to affect a wide range of species in different ways 1-4. Signs of climate change include changes in air and sea surface temperatures, a rise in the absolute mean sea level, changes in salinity, ocean acidification, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, among others 5. All of these signs are causing shifts in the abundance and distribution of several species, loss of habitat and changes in survival rates and breeding success. Some responses have been relatively consistent among species, such as a general advance in the timing of breeding and the migration of several bird species 6,7. However, other responses, like population size and breeding success are less consistent, and vary by species and location 8,9. Most studies on climate change in marine environments have focused on the rise in temperature and changes in the availability of resources 10,11. Other effects, such as the occurrence of coastal storms, have been overlooked, even though extreme events are expected to become more common over time, as they are associated with climate

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Predicting Which Species Succeed in Climate-Forced Polar Seas

Cited by 35 publications

References 107 publications

Arctic Sensitivity? Suitable Habitat for Benthic Taxa Is Surprisingly Robust to Climate Change

Arctic Sensitivity? Suitable Habitat for Benthic Taxa Is Surprisingly Robust to Climate Change

Myctophid Fish (Family Myctophidae) Are Central Consumers in the Food Web of the Scotia Sea (Southern Ocean)

Vulnerability of a top marine predator to coastal storms: a relationship between hydrodynamic drivers and stranding rates of newborn pinnipeds

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