Predicting wildlife distribution patterns in New England USA with expert elicitation techniques

Pearman-Gillman, Schuyler; Katz, Jonathan E.; Mickey, Ruth M.; Murdoch, James D.; Donovan, Therese M.

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2019.e00853

Cited by 11 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…We used maps of species probability of occurrence under recent conditions (2010) [62] and scenario simulated occurrence maps for the year 2060 [34] to evaluate changes in species occurrence probability under alternative future conditions. These maps were based on species distribution models (SDMs) developed by Pearman-Gillman et al [62]. Models were developed from expert opinion data and evaluated the effects of combinations of 74 variables on occurrence probability.…”

Section: Objective 1-map Species Distribution Changementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Third, we acknowledge that there is uncertainty in the models and parameters that simulated species occurrence, land-use change, and forest growth for each scenario. We used species distribution models that performed well when tested against empirical data [62]; however, there is inherent uncertainty in all probability estimates and future simulations. We also acknowledge that New England may change in ways outside the scope of the NELFP scenarios.…”

Section: Caveats To Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Supporting information S1 Table. Distribution change statistics for nine wildlife species in the New England region of the northeastern United States. Statistics were calculated from scenario-simulated PLOS ONE distribution change maps (2010-2060) derived from species-specific distribution models developed by [62] and landscape change scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project [31,58]. (PDF) S1 Fig.…”

Section: Caveats To Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Statistics were calculated from scenario-simulated distribution change maps (2010–2060) derived from species-specific distribution models developed by [ 62 ] and landscape change scenarios developed by the New England Landscape Futures Project [ 31 , 58 ]. …”

Section: Supporting Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… Distribution change was projected for nine wildlife species between current (2010) conditions and each of the NELFP scenarios: A) Business-As-Usual, B) Connected Communities, C) Yankee Cosmopolitan, D) Go It Alone, and E) Growing Global. Maps display changes in species probability of occurrence, derived from simulated distribution maps for 2010 and 2060 (see [ 34 , 62 ] for more details). …”

Section: Supporting Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wildlife resistance and protection in a changing New England landscape

Pearman-Gillman¹,

Duveneck²,

Murdoch³

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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Rapid changes in climate and land use threaten the persistence of wildlife species. Understanding where species are likely to occur now and in the future can help identify areas that are resistant to change over time and guide conservation planning. We estimated changes in species distribution patterns and spatial resistance in five future scenarios for the New England region of the northeastern United States. We present scenario-specific distribution change maps for nine harvested wildlife species, identifying regions of increasing, decreasing, or stable habitat suitability within each scenario. Next, we isolated areas where species occurrence probability is high (p > 0.7) and resistant to change across all future scenarios. Resistance was also evaluated relative to current land protection to identify patterns in and out of Protected Areas (PAs). Generally, species distributions declined in area over the 50year assessment period (2010-2060), with the greatest average declines occurring for moose (-40.9%) and wild turkey (-22.1%). Species resistance varied considerably across the region, with coyote demonstrating the highest average regional resistance (91.81% of the region) and moose demonstrating the lowest (0.76% of the region). At the state level, average focal species resistance was highest in Maine (the largest state) and lowest in Massachusetts. Many of the focal species showed high overlap in resistance and land protection. Coyote, white-tailed deer, and black bear had the highest probability of resistance, given protection, while moose and wild turkey had the highest probability of protection, given resistance. Overall, relatively small portions of New England-ranging between 0.25% and 21.12%-were both protected and resistant for the focal species. Our results provide estimates of resistance that can inform conservation planning for commonly harvested species that are important ecologically, economically, and culturally to the region. Expanding protected area coverage to include resistant areas may provide longer term benefits to these species.

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Section: Objective 1-map Species Distribution Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Caveats To Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Caveats To Interpretationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Supporting Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Supporting Informationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Wildlife resistance and protection in a changing New England landscape

Pearman-Gillman¹,

Duveneck²,

Murdoch³

et al. 2020

PLoS ONE

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Advances in wildlife abundance estimation using pedigree reconstruction

Rosenblatt,

Creel,

Gieder

et al. 2023

Ecology and Evolution

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The conservation and management of wildlife populations, particularly for threatened and endangered species are greatly aided with abundance, growth rate, and density measures. Traditional methods of estimating abundance and related metrics represent trade‐offs in effort and precision of estimates. Pedigree reconstruction is an emerging, attractive alternate approach because its use of one‐time, noninvasive sampling of individuals to infer the existence of unsampled individuals. However, advances in pedigree reconstruction could improve its utility, including forming a measure of precision for the method, establishing required spatial sampling effort for accurate estimates, ascertaining the spatial extent of abundance estimates derived from pedigree reconstruction, and assessing how population density affects the estimator's performance. Using established relationships for a stochastic, spatially explicit simulated moose (Alces americanus) population, pedigree reconstruction provided accurate estimates of the adult moose population size and trend. Novel bootstrapped confidence intervals performed as expected with intensive sampling but underperformed with moderate sampling efforts that could produce abundance estimates with low bias. Adult population estimates more closely reflected the total number of adults in the extant population, rather than number of adults inhabiting the area where sampling occurred. Increasing sampling effort, measured as the proportion of individuals sampled and as the proportion of a hypothetical study area, yielded similar asymptotic patterns over time. Simulations indicated a positive relationship between animal density and sampling effort required for unbiased estimates. These results indicate that pedigree reconstruction can produce accurate abundance estimates and may be particularly valuable for surveying smaller areas and low‐density populations.

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Effects of Winter Ticks and Internal Parasites on Moose Survival in Vermont, USA

et al. 2021

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Moose (Alces alces) have experienced considerable declines along the periphery of their range in the northeastern United States. In Vermont, the population declined 45% from 2010 to 2017 despite minimal hunter harvest and adequate habitat. Similarly, nearby populations recently experienced epizootics characterized by >50% mortality. Declines have largely been associated with the effects of winter ticks (Dermacentor albipictus), but uncertainty exists about the effects of environmental and other parasite‐related conditions on moose survival. We examined patterns of moose survival among a radio‐collared population (n = 127) in Vermont from 2017 to 2019. Our objectives were to estimate causes of mortality and model survival probability as a function of individual and landscape variables for calves (<1 yr) and adults (≥1 yr). Observed adult survival was 90% in 2017, 84% in 2018, and 86% in 2019, and winter calf survival was 60% in 2017, 50% in 2018, and 37% in 2019. Winter tick infestation was the primary cause of mortality (91% of calves, 25% of adults), and 32% of all mortalities had evidence of meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis). Other sources of mortality such as vehicles, harvest, predation, deep snow, and other parasitic infections were negligible. The best supported calf model included sex differences and negative effects of tick engorgement (%/week) and parasite level (roundworm and lungworm). The best supported adult model included the effect of cumulative tick engorgement (cumulative %/week), which negatively affected survival. Our results indicate that winter tick engorgement strongly affects survival, and is probably compounded by the presence of meningeal worm and other parasites. Reduced tick effects may be achieved by decreasing moose density through harvest and managing late winter habitat to minimize tick density. Management of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) density may also affect the transmission of meningeal worm. © 2021 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

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Predicting wildlife distribution patterns in New England USA with expert elicitation techniques

Cited by 11 publications

References 33 publications

Wildlife resistance and protection in a changing New England landscape

Wildlife resistance and protection in a changing New England landscape

Advances in wildlife abundance estimation using pedigree reconstruction

Effects of Winter Ticks and Internal Parasites on Moose Survival in Vermont, USA

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