Prediction And Evaluation of Forest Fire In Yunnan of China Based On Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Model

Abstract

Establishing an effective forest fire forecasting mechanism is the premise of scientific planning and management of forest fires and forest fire prevention. In recent years, the forest fire prediction mechanism has been one of the key areas of concern for the government forestry management departments and forestry researchers. One of them, is logistic regression ( LR ). It is a relatively frequent prediction probability model used in forest fire prediction and prediction in China and abroad for the past few years. However, with the gradual deepening of research, it is found that the logistic regression model fails to fully consider the spatial non-stationary relationship between forest fires and driving factors, which leads to poor fitting effect and low prediction accuracy of the model. But its extended counterpart, the Geographically weighted logistic regression ( GWLR ) model, takes into account the spatial correlation between model variables, and effectively improves the fitting ability and prediction accuracy of the model. Therefore, this paper compares the ability of the logistic regression model and the geographically weighted logistic regression model in terms of fitting ability and prediction accuracy in order to obtain the ability of the two models to predict forest fires in Yunnan Province. In this paper, the samples were divided into 60% training samples and 40% test samples, and repeated sampling was carried out 5 times for training. Variables that appeared in the training model for 3 or more times were used to construct the final LR and GWLR models. Finally, the models with better fitting ability and higher prediction accuracy were used to classify the fire risks in Yunnan Province. The results show that the geographically weighted logistic regression model is superior to the logistic regression model in terms of fitting effect and accuracy. The geographically weighted logistic regression model is more suitable for the data structure of forest fires in Yunnan Province and has better prediction ability. The AUC value of the geographically weighted logistic regression model is 0.902, and the prediction accuracy is 82.7 %; The AUC value of logistic regression model was 0.891, and the prediction accuracy was 80.1%; Fully considering the spatial heterogeneity among model variables can, to some extent, predict forest fires more accurately. The fitting of the two models shows that the relative humidity, temperature, air pressure, sunshine hours, daily precipitation, wind speed, and other meteorological factors; Vegetation type; terrain factor; Population density, road network and other human activity factors become the cause of forest fires in Yunnan Province.

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