Prediction and Positive Analysis of Security Housing Requirement for Stepped leveling Urban Floating Population

Abstract

With the speeding urbanization process in China, the amount of floating population increases at an unprecedented speed. How to solve the housing security issue now becomes a key indicator for social stability. In this paper, a new low-income housing requirement prediction method is proposed based on stepped leveling of floating population and related evaluation index predictions. Using Logistic retardant population growth model and Todaro method, floating population in the next 5 years is predicted. Then the population is divided into stepped levels to predict housing requirement. Based on the prediction of commercial house price, the method of predicting low-income house demand for different levels in urban areas is given. To demonstrate the proposed model and method, Shanghai Statistical data over the years are used and analyzed.

Housing tenure and type choices of urban migrants in China

“…Hukou, a crucial system for managing urban and rural population under China's planned economy, no longer restricts population movement between urban and rural areas and among regions after the reform and opening up, but local governments continue to use it as a guideline to distribute social resources, particularly social housing. Migrants have flocked to cities and coastal areas due to the fast urbanization and expanding regional economic development gaps, which have caused issues with such as housing, employment, and social security in the areas receiving the inflow of migrants (Wang and Zhang, 2010). With urbanization, the reform of hukou has been put on the agenda, and the constraints on the housing choice of the urban migrant population have been relaxed to some extent.…”