Prediction, explanation and the epistemology of future studies

Aligică, Paul Dragos

doi:10.1016/s0016-3287(03)00067-3

Cited by 42 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Futures studies is emerging as a new social scientific knowledge, and the community of futurists is trying to find which concept, methodology, procedure, and results are more acceptable in their research activities (Van Vught, 1987;Aligica, 2003;Bell, 2011;Mettler, 2005;Morgan, 2011;Hideg, 2013). Hideg (2013) tried to introduce a framework for methodological features of futures studies according to the main scientific paradigms.…”

Section: Futures Studies Paradigmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Survey on Integral Futures Studies Capacity to Overcome the Challenge of Meeting Future Water Resources for Food Production at the National Level in Iran

Dezfuli

Abdoreza

Nezamipur

et al. 2016

Journal of Sustainable Rural Development

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Purpose:Coping water scarcity and food production in Iran require some appropriate Futures Studies (FS) paradigm. Integral Futures Studies (IFS) is applied and examined for studying the futures of water supply for food production in I. R. of Iran. Methods:Virtual workshop, as a web based foresight procedure, is developed and implemented according to IFS circumstances for a future based structured social dialogue, among Iranian stakeholders. The first phase of the foresight procedure (pre-foresight) lasted 6 months, 105 national stakeholders were registered to take part in online discussions, surveys, and workshops, and to share their ideas and opinions on future agendas and trends. During this phase, the objective and subjective parts of the knowledge on shaping the future were integrated into one system. Finally 36 volunteers evaluated the pre-foresight.Results: IWRM and AM are some global approaches to solve the water allocation challenges at watershed or national levels. Under such circumstances future studies needs to bring closer divergent views, promote understandings, and interests; strengthen their consensus on the future interests and benefits of the nation, and renew their commitment to the preservation and management of water resources. So IFS could regard as a more suitable paradigm through coping water challenges for food production at national level. Behind some special results, procedure results (5C) of this study were examined. The percentages of participants consensus on the effectiveness of the examined issues were as follows: 1) Promoting thinking about the future (91%); 2) Clarifying the effective factors (88%); 3) Promoting thinking systematically (91%); 4) Forming new networks and communications (78%); 5) Promoting social learning about the subject of the study (89%); 6) Promoting cooperation among the participants (72%); and 7) Promoting consensus among the relevant stakeholders (75%). Conclusion:Finally, virtual workshop as a web based procedure and according to IFS circumstances, could promote a deep and continual structured and future oriented dialogue among the relevant stakeholders across the country for coping water challenges for food production at national level.

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Section: Futures Studies Paradigmsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Survey on Integral Futures Studies Capacity to Overcome the Challenge of Meeting Future Water Resources for Food Production at the National Level in Iran

Dezfuli

Abdoreza

Nezamipur

et al. 2016

Journal of Sustainable Rural Development

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“…For example, Mannermaa characterizes different foresight paradigms [28] and Aligica discusses different accounts of scientific criticism in the context of futures knowledge [29,30] while Grunwald considers options for its argumentative validation [31,32]. But mostly, foresight is described as a field which supposedly belongs to the social sciences [33,34].…”

Section: The Complexity Of Epistemic Considerations and Aims Of Foresmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new path in foresight validation? Discussing the socio-epistemic underpinning of foresight quality criteria

Shala

2015

Eur J Futures Res

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At present, there are different attempts to establish quality criteria for foresight based on both, the epistemic and the procedural level and all these attempts contribute to a scientific discourse on foresight. But how can we evaluate whether these criteria are scientifically valid themselves and whether they correspond to a form of scientific criticism that is appropriate for foresight validation? This paper introduces exemplarily social epistemology as an underpinning theory for foresight validation by quality criteria. This is shown by the example of the foresight quality criteria developed by Kuusi, Cuhls and Steinmüller [12] in this Topical Collection, which are put in line with Helen Longino's concept of transformative criticism. Longino has been chosen because her theory includes the consideration of contextual values in discussions of scientific objectivity and provides concrete criteria of transformative criticism. This paper is a major contribution to underpinning foresight by social epistemology and to validating quality criteria by a comprehensive form of scientific criticism, which takes the scientific interdisciplinary nature of foresight into account.

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“…Thus, we will provide a rather detailed description of the employed methodology, although this article focuses on the output of the workshops rather than on the process. We see this as part of providing a stimulus for the construction of a tool kit for scenario development as advocated by Hines [23].…”

Section: Scenario Workhopsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development

Kok

Patel²,

Rothman³

et al. 2006

Futures

105

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Prediction, explanation and the epistemology of future studies

Cited by 42 publications

References 4 publications

A Survey on Integral Futures Studies Capacity to Overcome the Challenge of Meeting Future Water Resources for Food Production at the National Level in Iran

A Survey on Integral Futures Studies Capacity to Overcome the Challenge of Meeting Future Water Resources for Food Production at the National Level in Iran

A new path in foresight validation? Discussing the socio-epistemic underpinning of foresight quality criteria

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development

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