Prediction of a 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Turkish population

Abstract

According to the International Diabetes Federation, Turkey will be among the top 10 countries in the world with the highest prevalence of diabetes mellitus (DM) by 2045, with a speculated number of cases of 10.4 million.This study aimed to predict the 10-year risk of type 2 DM in a Turkish population, assess potential factors of the 10-year risk of DM, and assess the outcomes of Turkey's 2015 to 2020 program for DM.Individuals aged 20–64 years were categorized and stratified according to age (in ranges of 5 years), sex, and populations of family medicine centers to reflect the whole population. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score, sociodemographic characteristics, body fat, muscle, bone ratio, blood pressure, and waist-to-height ratio were evaluated.We found that 9.5% (n = 71) of the population aged 20 to 64 years will have DM within the next 10 years. Low levels of education (odds ratio [OR]: 2.054; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.011–4.174), smoking cessation (OR: 2.636; 95% CI: 1.260–5.513), a waist-to-height ratio >0.5 (OR: 6.885; 95% CI: 2.301–20.602), body fat percentage (OR: 1.187; 95% CI: 1.130–1.247), high systolic blood pressure (OR: 1.025; 95% CI: 1.009–1.041), and alcohol consumption (beta-estimation: −0.690; OR: 0.501; 95% CI: 0.275–0.914) affect the 10-year risk of type 2 DM.Individuals at risk for DM can be easily identified using risk assessment tools in primary care; however, there is no active screening program in the healthcare system, and only proposals exist. In addition to screening, preventive measures should focus on raising awareness of DM, reducing body fat percentage and systolic blood pressure, and decreasing the waist-to-height ratio to <0.5.

Prevalence of prediabetes in an urban Nigerian population using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score

“…However, the result is lower with a high mean score of the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) for undiagnosed T2DM found in the Algerian population, with the average FINDRISC being 12.50 ± 3.82 in women and 10.47 ± 3.72 in men 27 and a Peruvian population with 8.9 ± 4.2 (range: 0-24) points 13 . In addition, the mean score of this study is slightly higher than the mean FINDRISC score, 6.8 ± 4.7 for the Belgian population 28 , and lower compared to the mean FINDRISC score of 8.72 ± 4.95 for the Turkish population 29 .…”

The Risk of T2DM in College Women: The Predictive Power of Financial versus Residential Status in a Cross-Sectional Pilot Study in Turkey

“…The maximum possible FINDRISC score is 26. The validity and reliability of the FINDRISC score in Turkish patients were previously examined, and the power of the FINDRISC score to predict newly diagnosed T2DM was 0.84 [ 18 , 19 ].…”

Comorbidity of patients with noncommunicable diseases in general practice. Eurasian guidelines

“…Прогнозирование 10-летнего риска развития СД2 в турецкой популяции показало -при высокой распространённости СД2 в стране средний балл по шкале FINDRISC среди лиц без диабета составил 8,72±4,95, а распространённость СД2 в соответствии с оценкой FINDRISC превысит ожидаемый уровень. В течение ближайших 10 лет 9,5% населения в возрасте 20-64 лет будут страдать СД2 [1348].…”