2020
DOI: 10.54987/bessm.v4i1.528
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Prediction of Cumulative Death Cases in Nigeria Due to COVID-19 Using Mathematical Models

Abstract: In this paper, we present various growth models such as Von Bertalanffy, Baranyi-Roberts, Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF), modified Richards, modified Gompertz, modified Logistics and Huang in fitting and evaluating the COVID-19 epidemic pattern as of 15 July 2020 in the form of the total number of SARS-CoV-2 deaths in Nigeria. The MMF model was found to be the best model having the highest adjusted R2 value and lowest RMSE value. The values for the Accuracy and Bias Factors were near unity (1.0). The parameters de… Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
2

Citation Types

0
2
0

Year Published

2021
2021
2021
2021

Publication Types

Select...
2

Relationship

0
2

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 2 publications
(2 citation statements)
references
References 0 publications
0
2
0
Order By: Relevance
“…Organisms growth including viral infection cases over time usually exhibit a sigmoidal growth profile that exhibits lag time (λ), acceleration to a maximal value (µm) and a final phase where the rate decreases and eventually reaches zero or an asymptote (A) is observed [19]. The sigmoidal curve can be fitted by different mathematical functions, such as Logistic [19,20], modified Gompertz [19,21], Richards [19,22], Schnute [19,23], Baranyi-Roberts [24], Von Bertalanffy [19,[25][26][27], Buchanan three-phase [28,29], Huang [30][31][32][33] and Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][43][44][45][46][47]. For the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic [8], strong predictive ability was employed models, such as updated Gompertz and Bertalanffy and logistics.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…Organisms growth including viral infection cases over time usually exhibit a sigmoidal growth profile that exhibits lag time (λ), acceleration to a maximal value (µm) and a final phase where the rate decreases and eventually reaches zero or an asymptote (A) is observed [19]. The sigmoidal curve can be fitted by different mathematical functions, such as Logistic [19,20], modified Gompertz [19,21], Richards [19,22], Schnute [19,23], Baranyi-Roberts [24], Von Bertalanffy [19,[25][26][27], Buchanan three-phase [28,29], Huang [30][31][32][33] and Morgan-Mercer-Flodin (MMF) [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][43][44][45][46][47]. For the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic [8], strong predictive ability was employed models, such as updated Gompertz and Bertalanffy and logistics.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…For the analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic [8], strong predictive ability was employed models, such as updated Gompertz and Bertalanffy and logistics. The total infection case of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil as of 15 th of July 2020 to the 20 th of December 2020 was modelled using several primary growth models with the MMF models found to be the best [41,42,44,46,[48][49][50][51].…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%