Prediction of disability-adjusted life years for diseases due to low fruit intake in 2017–2040 in Japan

Abstract

Objective This study aimed to predict disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate in Japan through 2040 with plausible future scenarios of fruit intake for neoplasms, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and diabetes and kidney diseases (DKDs). Design Data from National Health and Nutrition Surveys and the Global Burden of Diseases study in 2017 were used. We developed an autoregressive integrated moving average model with four future scenarios. Reference scenario maintains the current trend. Best scenario assumes that the goal defined in Health Japan 21 is achieved in 2023 and is kept constant afterwards. Moderate scenario assumes the goal is achieved in 2040. Constant scenario applies the same proportion of 2016 for the period between 2017-2040. Setting DALYs rates in Japan were predicted for the period between 2017-2040. Participants Human subjects were not utilized. Results In our reference forecast, the DALYs rates in all-ages group were projected to be stable for CVDs and continue increasing for neoplasms and DKDs. Age-group-specific DALYs rates for these three disease groups were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Among men aged 20–49, DALYs attributable to CVDs differed substantially between the scenarios, implying that there is a significant potential for reducing the burden of CVDs by increasing fruit intake at the population level. Conclusions Our scenario analysis shows that higher fruit intake is associated with lower disease burden in Japan. Further research is required to assess which policies and interventions can be used to achieve an increase in fruit intake as modelled in the scenarios of this study.

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“…This reflects the Japanese lifestyle of eating watermelon in summer and mandarin oranges and apples in winter, while bananas and kiwis are eaten all year around. Also, in Japan, elderly people are reported to consume more fruit and vegetable than younger people [25]. Although it has been reported that the intake of fruits and green and yellow vegetable are higher in summer than in winter, the potassium content of fruits and vegetables varies widely from food to food and these factors need to be taken into account when considering the effect on serum potassium levels [26].…”

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“…Several previous studies have forecasted future changes in health loss in DALYs in Japan to which dietary risk factors contribute, including high salt intake, under various future intake scenarios. 48 , 49 , 50 Significant gaps in the estimates of future health loss between scenarios were identified, indicating that future policies targeting risk factors in a population may have a significant impact on future trajectories of risk factor profiles in Japan and associated health losses.…”