Prediction of Gestational Diabetes and Hypertension Based on Pregnancy Examination Data

Abstract

Gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertension are two common pregnancy complications, which seriously threaten the life safety of pregnant women and adversely affect the growth and development of the fetus. Therefore, it is of great significance to detect and prevent hypertension and diabetes at an early stage of pregnancy. Each pregnant woman will undergo multiple tests at different gestational weeks. This progress produces lots of pregnancy examination data. These data can reflect the dynamic changes of pregnant women’s health indicators during pregnancy. This study aims to establish gestational diabetes and hypertension prediction model with a machine learning method based on real pregnancy examination data from the hospital. We use Logistic Regression, XGBoost, LightGBM, and Neural Network Model based on LSTM to do the prediction, respectively, and compare the performance. We check the prediction accuracy at different stages of pregnancy. We found that with pregnancy examination data at all gestational weeks, the predictive AUCs for diabetes and hypertension can reach 0.92 and 0.87, respectively. At 16th gestational week, the AUCs are 0.68 for diabetes and 0.70 for hypertension. We extract the checking items which are most important and get a simplified model with a modest reduction in predictive accuracy. This study demonstrates that based on several routine pregnancy examination items we can establish a machine learning model to detect and predict gestational diabetes and hypertension. This can be used as a diagnostic aid and is conducive to early prevention and treatment.