Prediction of global mean temperature based on SARIMA combined model

Abstract

With the continuous development of human society, the global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions is becoming more and more serious. In order to better cope with global warming, this paper uses the SARIMA model to predict global temperature. Then, SARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,1) model is established to forecast the temperature. It is found that the temperature in 2050 and 2100 will not reach 20℃, and the global average temperature is expected to reach 20℃ in about 2180. Through model evaluation, it is found that the R-square of SARIMA model is 0.87.