Prediction of GPS TEC during the X9.3 Solar Flare for DGAR low latitude station by using OKSM

Abstract

The effect of solar flares on the ionospheric regions of earth, which in turn affects signals of the various Global Navigation Satellite Systems, is a very important criterion to be considered in satellite communication. In this paper, we are investigating the prediction capability of the Kriging based Model and its effect on calculating the signal delay of GPS system on 6.9.2017during which NASA have observed a solar flare which have recorded X9.3 on solar storm scale. The GPS data used in this paper for prediction of TEC is taken from the DGAR Island station. The Vertical Total Electron Content data for GPS is predicted from 3rd September 2017 to 7th September 2017 by using the previous collected 6 days of TEC data of the low latitude DGAR station from IONOLAB and also by using the input parameters like Kp index, SSN, Ap index and Dst index. The predicted results are validated by comparing them with IRI 2016 and IRI PLAS 2017 model collected during the same dates.

Estimates of TEC change caused by solar flares

“…4 An example of calculating the slant TEC based on phase measurements for September 6, 2017 is shown in Figure 1. The presence of negative TEC values is associated with the uncertainty of phase measurements [3]. The red rectangle marks the period during which an X-class solar flare occurred.…”

“…The increase in the intensity of X-ray and ultraviolet (UV) radiation, observed during chromospheric flares on the Sun, causes an immediate increase in the electron density in the entire. 2,3 The main problem in assessing the TEC dynamics caused by solar flares is the presence of pronounced parabolic trends in the TEC calculation results from phase measurements (Fig. 1.).…”