Prediction of Ground Level Enhancements

Abstract

This paper summarizes the first tool that is able to predict Ground Level Enhancements (GLE). It makes real-time predictions of the occurrence of GLE events from the analysis of soft X-ray and differential proton flux measured by the GOES satellite network. Before the development of this tool, space weather systems have been warning users about evolving GLE events by processing neutron measurements recorded on ground level. This tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000-2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min and 15 min with respect to the first NM station’s alert and the GLE Alert Plus warning, respectively. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under agreement No 637324.