Prediction of hypertensive disorders in pregnant women in the «gray» risk zone following combined first-trimester screening

Abstract

Introduction. In obstetrics, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) including preeclampsia (РЕ) are one of the primary causes resulting in critical cases and maternal mortality. HDP prediction is a milestone that allows preventing complications as well as reducing the number of most common relevant complications of pregnancy. Existing algorithms that predict PE risk distribute the risks in such a way that a considerable number of patients fall into the category of false negative results, and, consequently, receive no timely prevention and proper follow-up. In particular, this cohort usually consists of patients with borderline high risks, who may be designated as a medium risk group or located in a “gray” zone. Aim: to develop a prognostic model for risk stratification in female patients with borderline to high developing PE risk based on combined first-trimester screening. Materials and Methods. A prospective comparative study included 1089 female patients who underwent a combined screening at 11–14 weeks of gestation. Group 1 consisted of female patients at high РЕ risk (1:100 and greater), while female patients at moderate risk (1:101–1:250) and low risk (below 1:250) were included into Group 2 and Group 3, respectively. All pregnant women underwent examination including assessed anamnestic, general clinical and laboratory data, mean blood pressure (BP), uterine artery pulsatility index, serum level of human chorionic gonadotropin beta-subunits (β-hCG), placental growth factor (PlGF), pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A). Results. An impact of various factors on risk of developing hypertensive disorders in pregnancy was assessed by binary logistic regression by identifying most significant among them and generating a statistical prediction model – the prognostic index of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy. The latter included: obstetric history, body mass index, PlGF, mean ВР, and alanine aminotransferase level. The sensitivity and specificity comprised 91.2 and 53.6 %, respectively, and the method effectivenesswas 81.8 %. Conclusion. The method proposed for HDP prediction is a second-line approach that may be used in clinical practice to stratify patients with borderline high risk of developing PE.