Prediction of Peak Discharge Using the SCS Curve Number Method in the Manikin Watershed

Abstract

Surface runoff is a crucial hydrological variable in the analysis of water infrastructure planning. A reliable method for predicting surface runoff resulting from rainfall in an ungauged watershed is the SCS CN method. This research aims to represent the effectiveness of the Curve Number (CN) method in calculating peak discharge in the Manikin Watershed. The data used for this analysis includes rainfall data from three rain stations, each with a 25-year dataset, water level data of 11 years, digital elevation model (DEM) data, land use maps, and hydrogeological maps. The SCS curve number method is the most commonly used method for the estimation of peak discharge in a watershed. The calculated flood discharge values for the Manikin River Basin, with return periods of 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, 100, 500, and 1000 years, are as follows: 60.32 m3/s, 84.74 m3/s, 111.98 m3/s, 121.41 m3/s, 153.25 m3/s, 188.79 m3/s, 287.24 m3/s, and 337.30 m3/s, respectively. The reliability testing of the method in the Manikin Watershed was determined by a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) value of 0.93 and root mean square error (RMSE) value of 19.70. As a result, the Curve Number Method proves to be highly reliable in representing the peak discharge in the Manikin Watershed.