Prediction of Potential and Future Distribution Areas of Anatolian Chesnut (Castanea Sativa Mill.) by Using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) Modeling Depending on Climate Change in Turkey

Sarikaya, Ayse Gul; Örücü, Ömer K.

doi:10.31407/ijees9415

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

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“…Especially since global climate change will significantly change climatic factors, there is a threat of significant individual and population losses in Anatolian chestnut. Other studies have also emphasized that the Anatolian chestnut is expected to decline significantly in the southern regions of the Northern Hemisphere (Sarıkaya and Orucu, 2019, Barnes and Delborne, 2019, Noah et al, 2021Clark et al, 2023). Considering the above-mentioned risks and threats, it is of vital importance to provide information in terms of determining the correct climate and location selection in the studies to be carried out for the continuity of the Anatolian chestnut.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigations of the spatial and climate characteristics of natural pure chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) forests: A case of Zonguldak Regional Directorate of Forestry

Aksoy

2024

Turkish Journal of Forestry | Türkiye Ormancılık Dergisi

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Chestnuts with high economic and socio-cultural value (Castanea sativa Mill.) must determine forests' spatial and climatic characteristics to improve them, increase fruit yield, and effectively combat diseases and pests. This study aimed to determine the spatial and climatic attributes of pure chestnut forests spreading within the borders of the Zonguldak Forestry Regional Directorate. A total of six criteria were used for spatial and climatic analyses: total precipitation (mm/year), annual mean temperature (C°), wind speed (m/s), altitude (m), slope (%), and aspect (°). Climate values were calculated as maximum, minimum, and average values, respectively; 1 619.25, 866.95, and 1 024.07 mm/year for total precipitation (mm/year), 13, 6 and 11.76 C° for annual mean temperature (C°), 6.62, 0.22 and 2.46 m/s for wind speed (m/s). The spatial characteristics were calculated as 1 221.68, 33.24, and 300.23 m for the height (m), 32.43%, 7.34%, and 18.63% for the slope (%) and finally, 338.63°, 18.18° and 184.18° for the angle (°), respectively, in terms of maximum, minimum and average values. Bartın Forest Management Directorate (FMD) ranks first with 57.18% of the natural chestnut forests spread the most in the study area, while Zonguldak FMD ranks second with 21.45% and Ulus FMD ranks third with 17.13%. The results obtained from the study based on the location and climate will contribute to the selection of the most suitable place for the new chestnut forest afforestation studies to be established and increase the percentage of success.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigations of the spatial and climate characteristics of natural pure chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) forests: A case of Zonguldak Regional Directorate of Forestry

Aksoy

2024

Turkish Journal of Forestry | Türkiye Ormancılık Dergisi

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“…Response curves were used to study the relationships between various bioclimatic variables and the predicted probability of the presence of D. sublimbalis. The effect of environmental variables in the model was assessed using the Jackknife test (Sarikaya and Örücü 2019). This provides estimates of the bias and a standard error of an estimate from subsamples of the available samples.…”

Section: Current and Future Climate Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the risk of mango quarantine pest Deanolis sublimbalis Snellen under different climate change scenarios

et al. 2021

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Considering the quarantine importance of the red-banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis (Crambidae: Lepidoptera), studies were carried out to predict the impact of climate change on its geographical distribution using the ecological niche modeling. Predictions were made based on the analysis of the relationship between occurrence points of D. sublimbalis and the corresponding current and future climate data of the study area, which was retrieved from the worldclim database. Spatial analysis software DIVA-GIS was used for visualization of the maps. The maximum entropy algorithm provided reasonable estimates of the species range in respect of discrimination of suitable and unsuitable areas for its occurrence in both present and future climatic conditions. The model provided a good fit for species distribution with a high value of area under the curve (0.971). Jackknife test indicated temperature seasonality to be the most important bioclimatic variable determining the potential geographical distribution of D. sublimbalis. The model predicted higher suitability areas for the pest occurrence in eastern parts of Andhra Pradesh, coastal regions of Orissa, southern parts of West Bengal, and some parts of Tripura. In future climate scenarios of 2030, 2050, 2070, and 2080, model-predicted relative increase in its distribution. Prediction of likely changes in the pest distribution with climate change will be useful in formulating effective management strategies against mango fruit borer.

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“…In recent years, some novel GIS‐based methods have played an important role in biogeography research (Booth et al, 2014 ; Fois et al, 2018 ). They have helped to develop models for predicting species distribution and simulating and visualizing species dispersal and migration pathways (Sarıkaya & Orucu, 2019 ; Tulowiecki, 2020 ). In general, these species distribution models (SDMs) integrate multiple environmental variables affecting the distribution of a species and match its actual distribution points with corresponding environmental variables to assess the species' niche requirements (Booth et al, 2014 ; Fourcade et al, 2018 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…SDM analysis permitted the identification of potential restoration sites based on two critical predictors: preference for acidic soil pH and relatively steep slope (Tulowiecki, 2020 ). Anatolian Chestnut's ( C. sativa ) potential and future distribution areas in Turkey were predicted to shrink significantly in response to climate change (Sarıkaya & Orucu, 2019 ). However, the geographic study of C. henryi has received little attention (Liu & Fang, 2000 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of climate‐change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi

Chun-ping

Tian

Jim

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Castanea henryi , with edible nuts and timber value, is a key tree species playing essential roles in China's subtropical forest ecosystems. However, natural and human perturbations have nearly depleted its wild populations. The study identified the dominant environmental variables enabling and limiting its distribution and predicted its suitable habitats and distribution. The 212 occurrence records covering the whole distribution range of C. henryi in China and nine main bioclimatic variables were selected for detailed analysis. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and QGIS to predict potentially suitable habitats under the current and four future climate‐change scenarios. The limiting factors for distribution were accessed by Jackknife, percent contribution, and permutation importance. We found that the current distribution areas were concentrated in the typical subtropical zone, mainly Central and South China provinces. The modeling results indicated temperature as the critical determinant of distribution patterns, including mean temperature of the coldest quarter, isothermality, and mean diurnal range. Winter low temperature imposed an effective constraint on its spread. Moisture served as a secondary factor in species distribution, involving precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation. Under future climate‐change scenarios, excellent habitats would expand and shift northwards, whereas range contraction would occur on the southern edge. Extreme climate change could bring notable range shrinkage. This study provided a basis for protecting the species' germplasm resources. The findings could guide the management, cultivation, and conservation of C. henryi , assisted by a proposed three‐domain operation framework: preservation areas, loss areas, and new areas, each to be implemented using tailor‐made strategies.

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Prediction of Potential and Future Distribution Areas of Anatolian Chesnut (Castanea Sativa Mill.) by Using Maximum Entropy (Maxent) Modeling Depending on Climate Change in Turkey

Cited by 11 publications

References 0 publications

Investigations of the spatial and climate characteristics of natural pure chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) forests: A case of Zonguldak Regional Directorate of Forestry

Investigations of the spatial and climate characteristics of natural pure chestnut (Castanea sativa Mill.) forests: A case of Zonguldak Regional Directorate of Forestry

Assessing the risk of mango quarantine pest Deanolis sublimbalis Snellen under different climate change scenarios

Effects of climate‐change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi

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