Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Distribution Evolution of Phoebe zhennan under Different Climate Scenarios

Abstract

As climatic and geographical conditions change in the future, species’ habitats will also change. Phoebe zhennan is a national second-level key protected wild plant in China with extremely high economic value and landscape value. In order to better protect the resources of P. zhennan and achieve the goal of the sustainable development of P. zhennan resources, we predict potential suitable areas for P. zhennan under different scenarios in the future. We collect the current distribution data of P. zhennan, and in combination with nine climate factors and three geographical factors, use the MaxEnt ecological niche model and ArcGIS geographic information system software to predict and analyze potential suitable areas for P. zhennan in different climate scenarios in the future. The result shows that more accurate prediction results can be obtained by using China’s climatic and geographical data before clipping as environmental variables. The precipitation of the warmest quarter and the slope are the main influencing factors in the prediction of potential suitable areas for P. zhennan. The future potential suitable areas for P. zhennan are mainly distributed in the central–southern and southern regions of China, with a tendency to expand towards the Tibet Autonomous Region and the northeast. The suitable habitat area will increase significantly, and the highly suitable habitat area will be more concentrated. These research results can provide valuable references for the effective protection of existing P. zhennan populations, the cultivation of P. zhennan within suitable habitats in the future, the establishment of a P. zhennan reserve, and the promotion of the sustainable utilization of P. zhennan resources.