Prediction of precipitation deficit and excess in Bydgoszcz Region in view of predicted climate change/ Prognoza niedoboru i nadmiaru opadu w rejonie Bydgoszczy w świetle przewidywanej zmiany klimatu

Abstract

The paper presents the prediction of rainfall shortage and excess in Bydgoszcz region in the growing seasons (April-September) in 2011-2050 in the perspective of climate change. Based on the predicted monthly sum of precipitations for the percentile 50%, calculated by the regional climate model RM5.1 for Poland with boundary values taken from global model ARPEGE, a decrease in the amount of rainfall during the growing season by approximately 55 mm is predicted, compared to 1971-2000 taken as a reference period. The qualification of rainfall shortage and excess was made using the standardised precipitation index (SPI). According to the predicted values of SPI, the occurrence of 38 months of rainfall excess and 40 months of rainfall deficit in the period 2011-2050 is predicted. Dry months will constitute 16% of all months, wet months - 13%, and normal months - 71%. The occurrence of 13 several-month long periods of rainfall excess and 14 such periods of drought are predicted. The longest periods of both wet and dry weather will last 5 months. So long wet periods are expected in 2020, 2022 and 2031, and drought periods in 2017-2018, 2023-2024 and from 2046 to 2049.

Predictive Capacity of Rainfall Data to Estimate the Water Needs of Fruit Plants in Water Deficit Areas

“…In Polish climate conditions, the annual amount of precipitation required to provide cherry trees with the appropriate amount of water is between 500 mm and 600 mm and between 280 mm and 345 mm during the growing season [57,58,60,68]. The average multiannual precipitation totals in the central Poland fall within the required range, as they amount to 520 mm [59,69,70]. For comparison, the average annual water needs of cherry trees in the medium soil in the Bydgoszcz region, determined for the 1981-2015 period, were 532 mm [59].…”

Efficiency of some meteorological drought indices in different time scales, case study: wadi Louza basin (NW-Algeria)

“…Droughts are one of the most dangerous and damage-causing natural phenomena. Compared with the mean sum of precipitation in the last three decades of the 20th century, the mean sum of precipitation in growing seasons (April-September) of the years 2011-2050 is predicted to decrease by 55 mm [BĄK, ŁABĘDZKI 2014] Many semi-arid areas (e.g. The Mediterranean basin, Western United States, South Africa and north--eastern Brazil) will suffer a decrease in water resources due to climate change.…”

Characterizing Selected Wetland Habitats’ Desiccation Phenomena Using the Crop Water Stress Index

“…However, the increase in the frequency of droughts throughout the year is expected to take place all over Europe [10]. Up to 2050, an increase in the deficit of precipitation and, consequently, the frequency and magnitude of droughts is forecasted [11].…”