Prediction of Regional Broadband Strong Ground Motions Using a Teleseismic Source Model of the 18 April 2014 Mw 7.3 Papanoa, Mexico, Earthquake

Abstract

To estimate predicted ground motion from a teleseismic slip model, we use a low- and high-frequency hybrid method to simulate the regional, strong ground motions observed following the 18 April 2014 moment magnitude (Mw) 7.3 Papanoa, Mexico, earthquake. To generate the regional ground motion at low frequencies (<1 Hz), a teleseismically derived, finite-fault, kinematic model is used to define the earthquake source, taking into account slip-model variations identified with a parameter sampling approach that considers possible errors in the fault geometry, the hypocenter depth, and the rupture velocity. A 3D crustal model is used to calculate the low-frequency ground motions using a finite-element calculation that includes topography and considers variations in the source model to estimate the uncertainty in the calculations. High frequencies (>1 Hz) are added using a 1D full-wave propagation code that estimates uncertainties by considering multiple random distributions of slip with different spatial correlation lengths. The synthetic, broadband (0.05–10.0 Hz) ground motions are obtained by combining the low- and high-frequency portions match filtered at 1 Hz. These synthetic ground motions are compared with the regional observations using velocity records, peak ground acceleration, and medians of the orientation-independent response spectra of the horizontal components (RotD50) calculated at periods of 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 7.5, and 10.0 s. The results indicate that ground motions estimated at these periods using our hybrid approach based primarily on a teleseismically derived source model are comparable to the values observed for the 2014 Papanoa earthquake at regional distances. The approach could be used to estimate strong-motion spectral levels expected for regions with limited local and regional recordings and could also fill in magnitude or distance gaps in ground-motion prediction relations utilized in the assessment of seismic hazard.