Prediction of renal damage in children with IgA vasculitis based on machine learning

Abstract

This article is objected to explore the value of machine learning algorithm in predicting the risk of renal damage in children with IgA vasculitis by constructing a predictive model and analyzing the related risk factors of IgA vasculitis Nephritis in children. Case data of 288 hospitalized children with IgA vasculitis from November 2018 to October 2021 were collected. The data included 42 indicators such as demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms and laboratory tests, etc. Univariate feature selection was used for feature extraction, and logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree and random forest (RF) algorithms were used separately for classification prediction. Lastly, the performance of four algorithms is compared using accuracy rate, recall rate and AUC. The accuracy rate, recall rate and AUC of the established RF model were 0.83, 0.86 and 0.91 respectively, which were higher than 0.74, 0.80 and 0.89 of the logistic regression model; higher than 0.70, 0.80 and 0.89 of SVM model; higher than 0.74, 0.80 and 0.81 of the decision tree model. The top 10 important features provided by RF model are: Persistent purpura ≥4 weeks, Cr, Clinic time, ALB, WBC, TC, Relapse, TG, Recurrent purpura and EB-DNA. The model based on RF algorithm has better performance in the prediction of children with IgA vasculitis renal damage, indicated by better classification accuracy, better classification effect and better generalization performance.