Prediction of reoffending risk in men convicted of sexual offences: development and validation of novel and scalable risk assessment tools (OxRIS)

Yu, Rongqin; Molero, Yasmina; Långström, Niklas; Fanshawe, Thomas; Yukhnenko, Denis; Lichtenstein, Paul; Larsson, Henrik; Fazel, Seena

doi:10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2022.101935

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 45 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, we have developed models with higher AUCs for any reoffending (C index, 0.72) and violent reoffending (C index, 0.74). This finding is similar to recently developed tools 36 for individuals convicted of sexual violence reoffense, showing higher AUCs for general and violent recidivism than that for sexual crime. The lower predictive validity in domestic violence reoffending could partly be explained by the lack of relationship-based factors in the new tool because they are not routinely collected in health care and crime registers.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Development and Validation of a Prediction Tool for Reoffending Risk in Domestic Violence

Molero

Lichtenstein

et al. 2023

JAMA Netw Open

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ImportanceCurrent risk assessment tools for domestic violence against family members were developed with small and selected samples, have low accuracy with few external validations, and do not report key performance measures.ObjectiveTo develop new tools to assess risk of reoffending among individuals who have perpetrated domestic violence.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis prognostic study investigated a national cohort of all individuals arrested for domestic violence between 1998 and 2013 in Sweden using information from multiple national registers, including National Crime Register, National Patient Register, Longitudinal Integrated Database for Health Insurance and Labour Market Studies Register, and Multi-Generation Register. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to June 2023.ExposureArrest for domestic violence.Main Outcomes and MeasuresPrediction models were developed for 3 reoffending outcomes after arrest for domestic violence: conviction of a new violent crime (including domestic violence), conviction of any new crime, and rearrest for domestic violence at 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years. The prediction models were created using sociodemographic factors, criminological factors, and mental health status–related factors, linking data from multiple population-based longitudinal registers. Cox proportional hazard multivariable regression was used to develop prediction models and validate them in external samples. Key performance measures, including discrimination at prespecified cutoffs and calibration statistics, were investigated.ResultsThe cohort included 27 456 individuals (mean [SD] age, 39.4 [11.6] years; 24 804 men [90.3%]) arrested for domestic violence, of whom 4222 (15.4%) reoffended and were convicted for a new violent crime during a mean (SD) follow-up of 26.5 (27.0) months, 9010 (32.8%) reoffended and were convicted for a new crime (mean [SD] follow-up, 22.4 [25.1] months), and 2080 (7.6%) were rearrested for domestic violence (mean [SD] follow-up, 25.7 [30.6] months). Prediction models were developed with sociodemographic, criminological, and mental health factors and showed good measures of discrimination and calibration for violent reoffending and any reoffending. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for risk of violent reoffending was 0.75 (95% CI, 0.74-0.76) at 1 year, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77) at 3 years, and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77) 5 years. The AUC for risk of any reoffending was 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.77) at 1 year and at 3 years and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.75-0.76) at 5 years. The model for domestic violence reoffending showed modest discrimination (C index, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.61-0.65) and good calibration. The validation models showed discrimination and calibration performance similar to those of derivation models for all 3 reoffending outcomes. The prediction models have been translated into 3 simple online risk calculators that are freely available to use.Conclusions and RelevanceThis prognostic study developed scalable, evidence-based prediction tools that could support decision-making in criminal justice systems, particularly at the arrest stage when identifying those at higher risk of reoffending and screening out individuals at low risk of reoffending. Furthermore, these tools can enhance treatment allocation by enabling criminal justice services to focus on modifiable risk factors identified in the tools for individuals at high risk of reoffending.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Development and Validation of a Prediction Tool for Reoffending Risk in Domestic Violence

Molero

Lichtenstein

et al. 2023

JAMA Netw Open

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, the effect of intervention efforts among youth offenders to prevent injuries and death needs to be further researched (Welsh, Zane, & Reeves, 2021). Our results also suggest that research on prediction models for injuries and death among youth offenders is a necessary next step (see for example Fazel, Wolf, Larsson, Mallet, & Fanshawe, 2019;Yu et al, 2022). This could have implications for risk assessment among youth offenders to better guide intervention efforts.…”

Section: Implications and Conclusionmentioning

confidence: 81%

A population-based study of unintentional injury and premature death among non-imprisoned and imprisoned youth offenders

Siponen

Andersson

Oskarsson

et al. 2023

Journal of Criminal Justice

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Über 15 Jahre „Kein Täter werden“ – mehr Schaden als Nutzen?

König

2023

Forens Psychiatr Psychol Kriminol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ZusammenfassungDer verursacherbezogene Dunkelfeldansatz des Präventionsnetzwerkes „Kein Täter werden“ bietet seit über einem Jahrzehnt nichtstrafverfolgten pädophilen und/oder hebephilen Hilfesuchenden therapeutische Unterstützung zur Verhinderung von sexualisierter Gewalt gegen Minderjährige an. Kritiker bemängeln jedoch methodische Schwächen in den durchgeführten Selbstevaluationsstudien der Projektverantwortlichen, die die kriminalpräventive Wirksamkeit infrage stellen. Die selbstberichtete Kriminalitätsbelastung liegt in einer aktuellen Follow-up-Untersuchung im Vergleich zu kriminologischen Hellfeldstudien mit Sexualstraftätern deutlich höher. Aus forensisch-kriminologischer Sicht lässt der in Berlin etablierte verursacherbezogene Dunkelfeldansatz erhebliche Zweifel an seiner kriminalpräventiven Wirksamkeit aufkommen.

show abstract

Prediction of reoffending risk in men convicted of sexual offences: development and validation of novel and scalable risk assessment tools (OxRIS)

Cited by 4 publications

References 45 publications

Development and Validation of a Prediction Tool for Reoffending Risk in Domestic Violence

Development and Validation of a Prediction Tool for Reoffending Risk in Domestic Violence

A population-based study of unintentional injury and premature death among non-imprisoned and imprisoned youth offenders

Über 15 Jahre „Kein Täter werden“ – mehr Schaden als Nutzen?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About