Prediction of Risk of Wet-Pavement Accidents: Fuzzy Logic Model

Abstract

Researchers developed a fuzzy-logic model for predicting the risk of accidents that occur on wet pavements. Preventing wet-pavement accidents has been an extremely difficult and elusive task because they are stochastic events whose occurrence is related to a variety of factors, including vehicle, roadway, human, and environmental characteristics. Conventionally, researchers use linear or nonlinear regression models and probabilistic models to predict wet-pavement accidents. However, these models often are limited in their capability to fully explain the process when the underlying physical system possesses a degree of non-linearity. Therefore, the potential of applying fuzzy logic in this area might be promising. Two fuzzy-logic models were developed and evaluated using accident data and the corresponding traffic data collected from 123 sections of highway in Pennsylvania from 1984 to 1986. The models use skid number, posted speed, average daily traffic, percentage of wet time, and driving difficulty as input variables and the number of wet-pavement accidents as the output variable. The first model is based on Mamdani’s fuzzy-inference method, and the second is a Sugeno-type fuzzy-logic model using the fuzzy-clustering method. The two fuzzy-logic models show superiority over the probabilistic model and the nonlinear regression model. Results indicate that, in addition to predicting the risk of wet-pavement accidents, the fuzzy-logic model can be applied conveniently to determine specific corrective actions that should be undertaken to improve safety.

An assessment of the skid resistance effect on traffic safety under wet-pavement conditions

“…At the Pennsylvania Transportation Institute, Xiao et al (2000) found that the safety condition, measured by the percent reduction in wet-pavement accidents, could be improved nearly 60% if the skid number increased from 33.4 to 48.…”

Heavy Vehicle Multi-Body Dynamic Simulations to Estimate Skidding Distance

“…Past researchers have clarified some aspects of the heavy vehicle skidding accidents during emergency braking require the knowledge of wheel lock-up (Vangi & Virga, 2007;Xiao, Kulakowski, & EI-Gindy, 2000). In fact, the skidding phenomenon of a vehicle under braking is identified by the occurrence of wheel lock-up.…”

Investigation of the Skid Resistance at Accident Occurred at Urban Intersections

“…In other words, the number of accident numbers change as a result of the road surface conditions. Xiao et al [17] have showed that rising of road surface skid resistance value from 35% to 48% makes a 60% decrease in traffic accidents.…”