Prediction of saturation exponent for subsurface oil and gas reservoirs using soft computing methods

Abstract

The most widely used equation to calculate water saturation or suitable shaly water saturation in clean or shaly formation, respectively, is the modified Archie formula. The quality of Archie parameters including saturation exponent affects the preciseness of water saturation, and thus estimated oil and gas in place. Therefore, estimating the saturation exponent by the soft computation methods deems to be necessary. In this study, intelligent models such as multilayer perceptron neural network, least squares support vector machine, radial basis function neural network, and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system are developed to predict saturation exponent in terms of petrophysical data including porosity, absolute permeability, water saturation, true resistivity, and resistivity index by utilizing a databank for middle east oil and gas reservoirs. The introduced models are optimized using particle swarm optimization, genetic algorithm, and levenberg marquardt techniques. Graphical and statistical methods are used to demonstrate the capability of the constructed models. Based on the statistical indexes obtained for each model, it is found that radial basis function neural network, multilayer perceptron neural network, and least squares support vector machine are the most robust models as they possess the smallest mean squared error, root mean squared error and average absolute relative error as well as highest coefficient of determination. Moreover, the sensitivity analysis indicates that water saturation has the most effect and porosity has the least effect on the saturation exponent. The developed models are simple-to-use and time-consuming tools to predict saturation exponent without needing laboratory methods which are tedious and arduous.