Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Song, Jinyue; Zhang, Hua; Li, Ming; Han, Wuhong; Yin, Yuxin; Lei, Jinping

doi:10.3390/insects12100874

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The average AUC of the model test was 0.933, indicating a good model prediction accuracy. The response curve obviously became smooth and nearby the positive distribution curve, which conformed to Shelford's tolerance law (Zhao et al, 2021b;Song et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Simulation of the Potential Suitable Distribution of the Endangered Cremastra appendiculata in China Under Global Climate Change

Ouyang

Chen

Strachan

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Predicting the spatial distribution of species in relation to suitable areas under global climate change could provide some references for conservation and long-term management strategies for the species. In this study, the MaxEnt was optimized by adjusting the feature combination and regulation magnification parameters with the ENMeval data package. Based on 127 Cremastra appendiculata spatial distribution locations and 14 environmental factors, the potential distribution areas of C. appendiculata under the present and future climate conditions (2050s, 2070s) were simulated, and the dominant environmental factors influencing the spatial distribution of C. appendiculata were analyzed. The feature combination (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM) were selected as per the Akaike information criterion (AIC). The model showed complexity and degree of over-fitting (delta AICc = 0, omission rate = 0.106, the difference in the curve values between the training and testing areas was 0.021) after establishing the optimal model (FC = LQH and RM = 2.5), and the results indicated that the optimal model performed well in simulating the potential spatial distribution of C. appendiculata (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.933). The results showed that the suitable habitat of C. appendiculata currently in China is 187.60 × 104 km2, while the highly suitable habitat is 118.47 × 104 km2, the moderately suitable habitat is 53.25 × 10 4 km2, and the poorly suitable habitat is 15.88 × 104 km2. There is an increasing trend in the suitable habitat of C. appendiculata under six climate scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 in the 2050s and the 2070s, and that habitat will extend to the northwest as a whole. The highly suitable habitat of C. appendiculata in nature reserves is 0.47 × 104 km2; consequently, there is a large gap in the protection of C. appendiculata. The distribution of C. appendiculata was influenced by the temperature, precipitation, and normalized vegetation index.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 61%

Simulation of the Potential Suitable Distribution of the Endangered Cremastra appendiculata in China Under Global Climate Change

Ouyang

Chen

Strachan

et al. 2022

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Senula et al [ 30 ] applied this model to predict the habitat suitability of ants belonging to the genus Trachymyrmex and Mycetomoellerius in the United States. Song et al [ 31 ] modeled Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) using maxent for current and future projected climatic conditions in China. Koch et al [ 32 ] implemented maxent and determined areas of highest suitability for Gracilidris pombero Wild & Cuezzo, 2006.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling potential distribution of newly recorded ant, Brachyponera nigrita using Maxent under climate change in Pothwar region, Pakistan

et al. 2022

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Climate change has been discussed as to exert shifts in geographical range of plants, animals or insect species by increasing, reducing or shifting its appropriate climatic habitat. Globally, Pakistan has been ranked at 5th position on the list of countries most vulnerable to climate change in 2020. Climate change has resulted in the losses of biodiversity and alteration in ecosystem as a result of depletion of natural habitats of species in Pakistan as well as in the world. Ants have been regarded as indicators of environmental change and ecosystem processes. Brachyponera nigrita (Emery, 1895) was reported for the first time from Pakistan (Pothwar region). Objective of our studies was to model geographic distribution of newly recorded ant species, B. nigrita based on two representative concentration pathways (RCP) (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for 2050s using maximum entropy model (Maxent) in Pakistan. In modeling procedure, 21occurrence records and 8 variables namely Bio4 (Temperature seasonality), Bio8 (Mean temperature of wettest quarter), Bio10 (Mean temperature of warmest quarter), Bio12 (Annual precipitation), Bio13 (Precipitation of wettest month), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality), Bio17 (Precipitation of driest quarter) and Bio18 (Precipitation of warmest quarter) were used to determine the current and future distributions. Performance of the model was evaluated using AUC (area under curves) values, partial ROC, omission rates (E = 5%) and AICc (Model complexity).The results showed the average AUC value of the model was 0.930, which indicated that the accuracy of the model was excellent. The jackknife test also showed that Bio4, Bio18, Bio17 and Bio15 contributed 98% for the prediction of potential distribution of the species as compared to all other variables. Maxent results indicated that distribution area of B. nigrita under future predicted bioclimatics 2050 (RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5) would be increased in various localities of Pakistan as compared to its current distribution. In Pothwar region, moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of this species would increase by 505.932321km2and 572.118421km2as compared to current distribution under 2050 (RCP 4.5), while under 2050 (RCP 8.5), there would be an increase of 6427.2576km2and 3765.140493km2 respectively in moderately suitable and highly suitable areas of B. nigrita. This species was associated with termites, collembolans and larval stages of different insects. White eggs, creamy white pupae and many workers of this species were observed in a variety of habitats. Unknown nesting ecology, species identification characters supported with micrographs has been given which will help researchers for further ecological studies.

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“…predicted that 32 °N could be the northern limit boundary of the S. invicta infestation zone, and 34 °N could be the possible S. invicta infestation zones at the northern boundary. Song et al 66 . indicated that the suitable areas of S. invicta in China under current (2000s) climate scenarios would be 18.15–35.04 N, 91.66–122.03 E 66 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surveillance and invasive risk of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren in China

Wang

Qin

et al. 2022

Pest Management Science

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BACKGROUND The red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren is one of the world's most successful and destructive invasive ant species. In mainland China, fast, monthly and annual pest reports on all pests have been established since 2010. The distribution of S. invicta resulting from climate change in China was predicted using MaxEnt modeling in combination with comprehensive surveillance data and 56 environmental factors. RESULTS The fast and monthly reports revealed that S. invicta had spread to new territories almost every year in this timeframe. The transportation of seedlings and deployment of turfgrass were the major artificial transmission pathways. Annual reports indicated that control efforts had effectively reduced its occurrence areas and degree of severity of infestations, and retrieved the economic loss caused by S. invicta. The MaxEnt model predicted that S. invicta would expand to 23 provinces in China as a result of climate change. Moisture variables were the key factors affecting the distribution of this pest. CONCLUSION Based on the theoretical reference framework of this research, China proposed the first‐ever integrated tactics against a single pest, jointly involving nine ministries, which include clarifying responsibilities, cutting off transmission pathways, strengthening surveillance, declaring pest distributions and conducting preventive and control campaigns. Practical efforts and measures combating the devastation of S. invicta may shed light on its management and other invasive species worldwide. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.

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Prediction of Spatiotemporal Invasive Risk of the Red Import Fire Ant, Solenopsis invicta (Hymenoptera: Formicidae), in China

Cited by 19 publications

References 26 publications

Simulation of the Potential Suitable Distribution of the Endangered Cremastra appendiculata in China Under Global Climate Change

Simulation of the Potential Suitable Distribution of the Endangered Cremastra appendiculata in China Under Global Climate Change

Modeling potential distribution of newly recorded ant, Brachyponera nigrita using Maxent under climate change in Pothwar region, Pakistan

Surveillance and invasive risk of the red imported fire ant, Solenopsis invicta Buren in China

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