Prediction of Spring Wheat Yield by Agrochemical Properties in Tetyushskiy District of the Republic of Tatarstan

Abstract

A sample for half a century from 1970 to 2022 was considered, consisting of 7 components, in which the yield of spring wheat (Uf) performs the desired function, with the content of mobile phosphorus (R2O5), exchangeable potassium (K2O), and the proportion of acidic soils in the soil acting as arguments. arable layer (Dkp), the saturation of the arable layer with mineral (min.) and organic (org.) fertilizers and their sum (NPK) in kg/ha per dry matter within one municipal area. A statistically significant relationship was established between agrochemical properties (K2O, Dkp) and Uf with correlation coefficients (r) -0.48 and 0.39 at α = 0.05. Taking into account the pairwise correlation, a multiple correlation was calculated. For the entire sample (6 factors), r was 0.55, and for 2 factors - 0.53. Based on the parameters of correlation and regression analysis, an equation was developed to predict the yield of spring wheat based on agrochemical properties. This equation can be used to increase the efficiency of fertilizers, prevent soil degradation, optimize land use and increase profits in agriculture.With the maximum values of the actual yield of spring wheat - 0.86-4.59 t / ha, the estimated yield (urash) ranges from 1.44 (1990) to 2.77 (2017) t / ha. The absolute difference between the actual and projected (estimated) yield ranges from 0.02 to 1.97 t/ha. The relative deviation in % ranges from 1.03 (1985) to 161.6% (2010) with average values of 25.5%. Deviations of more than 50% occurred in 1981, 1988, 1998, 1999 and 2010, which were due to the influence of extreme dry years, which indicates the need to expand the sample by agro-climatic factors.