Prediction of Suitable Future Natural Areas for Highland Barley on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)

Abstract

Global climate change, mainly characterized by warming, has resulted in significant migration of temperature-sensitive crops from traditional planting areas, making crops more vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters, increasing yield losses caused by disasters. Based on the MaxEnt model, combining Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5, the potential suitable areas for highland barley planting on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were estimated, and the results showed that: (1) Over 30% of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is unsuitable for highland barley cultivation, the area of moderately suitable area for highland barley planting is close to 50%, and the marginally suitable and highly suitable area is less than 20%; (2) From the past distribution to the near and medium-term distributions, the unsuitable area for highland barley planting is gradually shrinking. In the moderately suitable area for highland barley planting, some of the area with relatively low suitability was transformed from unsuitable area, and some of the area with relatively high suitability was transformed into marginally suitable area, so that the total area remained basically unchanged. A small part of the marginally suitable area was converted into high-suitability area, which increased the highly suitable area; (3) From the perspective of different scenarios, in the near and medium term, the area with a slight decrease or no change in suitability under RCP 8.5 was smaller than under RCP 4.5, but the area with a significant increase was larger than under RCP 4.5. The areas with a small decrease or no change in suitability accounted for 23.66–33.77% of the total plateau area and were concentrated in the northwestern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Qaidam Basin. Areas with a large increase in suitability accounted for 3.47–15.64% of the total area and were located in the southern, central, and eastern parts of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this area increased significantly with time; (4) Judging from the average altitude change in highland barley planting, the average altitude of the highly suitable area will rise from 3759 m to 3937 m (RCP 4.5) and 3959 m (RCP 8.5) in the near term. By the medium term, the average elevation of the highly suitable area will increase from 3759 m to 4017 m (RCP 4.5) and 4090 m (RCP 8.5). The trend of rising average altitude continues to strengthen.

Distinct responses and range shifts of lizard populations across an elevational gradient under climate change

“…We considered two shared socio‐economic pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) developed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), representing low (SSP1‐2.6) and high (SSP5‐8.5) emission scenarios. For each SSP, we averaged the projections of eight general circulation models (GCMs; Ma et al, 2021): BCC‐CSM2‐MR, CNRM‐CM6‐1, CNRM‐ESM2‐1, CanESM5, IPSL‐CM6A‐LR, MIROC‐ES2L, MIROC6, MRI‐ESM2‐0, which were considered to perform well for the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau (Ma et al, 2022; Wang et al, 2021; Yin et al, 2021). We used hourly measurements of microhabitat conditions (i.e., solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity at the animal's height, and soil temperature profiles at 10 soil depths from 0 to 200 cm; see details in Kearney & Porter, 2017) as the input parameters for our ectotherm microclimate model (see Table S2 for parameter values).…”

“…MIROC6, MRI-ESM2-0, which were considered to perform well for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (Ma et al, 2022;Wang et al, 2021;Yin et al, 2021). We used hourly measurements of microhabitat conditions (i.e., solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity at the animal's height, and soil temperature profiles at 10 soil depths from 0 to 200 cm; see details in Kearney & Porter, 2017) as the input parameters for our ectotherm microclimate model (see Table S2 for parameter values).…”

Degradation Models and Maintenance Strategies for Reinforced Concrete Structures in Coastal Environments under Climate Change: A Review

“…These scenarios are based on varying assumptions about future socio-economic development, energy usage, and greenhouse gas emissions, offering a range of potential future climate outcomes. This enables researchers to assess the potential impacts of different levels of greenhouse gas emissions, often used in conjunction with climate models to study various aspects of climate change, including changes in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events [176][177][178]. They play a crucial role in aiding policymakers and scientists in understanding potential risks and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies [179].…”

Prediction of Suitable Distribution Area of Plateau pika (Ochotona curzoniae) in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)

“…In the first step, the probability distribution of each variable (denoted as X) in the whole Tibetan Plateau and Plateau pika distribution area, denoted as P and Q, respectively, was estimated, and the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL divergence) of P from Q was calculated (Equation ( 1)). This difference is a measure of the difference between one probability distribution and another [57,58]. If the two distribution probabilities of a variable are highly similar, the variable is considered to have little significance for the distribution of plateau pika.…”

“…Based on the analysis of the correlation coefficient between environmental variables and the contribution rate of each variable to the MaxEnt model, Zhang [68] and Wu [69] excluded variables with large correlation coefficients and low contribution rates. On this basis, Su [57] and Ma [58] calculated the KL divergence of the environmental variables and eliminated the variables with KL divergence lower than 1 to optimize the variables. All these measures can improve model accuracy to a certain extent.…”