Prediction of Technological Change under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Regional Differences: A Case Study of Irrigation Water Use Efficiency Changes in Chinese Provinces

Abstract

Technological changes in water use efficiency directly influence regional sustainable development. However, few studies have attempted to predict changes in water use efficiency because of the complex influencing factors and regional diversity. The Chinese Government has established a target of 0.6 for the effective utilization coefficient of irrigation water, but it is not clear how the coefficient will change in different provinces in the future. The purpose of this study is to predict irrigation water use efficiency changes using a conditional convergence model and combined with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) scenario settings and hydro-economic (HE) classification to group 31 Chinese provinces by their different economic and water resources conditions. The results show that the coefficient exponentially converges to 0.6 in half the provinces under SSP1 (sustainability), SSP2 (middle of the road), and SSP5 (conventional development) by 2030, whereas SSP3 (fragmentation) and SSP4 (inequality) are generally inefficient development pathways. HE-3 provinces (strong economic capacity, substantial hydrological challenges) achieve the greatest efficiency improvements (with all coefficients above 0.6), and SSP1 is a suitable pathway for these provinces. HE-2 provinces (strong economic capacities, low hydrological challenges) have relatively low efficiency because they lack incentives to save water, and SSP1 is also suitable for these provinces. For most HE-1 provinces (low economic capacity, low hydrological challenges), the coefficients are less than 0.6, and efforts are required to enhance their economic capacity under SSP1 or SSP5. HE-4 provinces (low economic capacity, substantial hydrological challenges) would improve efficiency in a cost-efficient manner under SSP2. utilization efficiency of natural resources, is a possible way to solve the current dilemma of sustainable development [3,4], because it has a direct impact on the total scale of natural resource utilization, and thus directly influences whether the regional social economy is in a sustainable development state [5,6]. Technological change in agriculture irrigation water use efficiency is of fundamental significance for solving water scarcity and increasing crop productivity, and achieving highly efficient irrigation is crucial to balancing water resources input and sustainable agricultural economic growth [7][8][9].The theory of technological change generally distinguishes two types of technological change: technological catch-up and technological diffusion. Technological catch-up concerns the knowledge production function and occurs through the mechanism of learning by doing. It requires continuous additional capital inputs and manufacturers, and the labor force must constantly learn and master new skills in the production process, which brings about extensive progress in social productivity [3,[10][11][12]. Technological diffusion is brought about by technological transmission and is mainly realized through open trade, technology transfer,...

Predicting the Water Rebound Effect in China under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

“…The Water Futures and Solutions (WFAS) scenario proposed the HE classification method, this method can be combined with the scenario settings of the SSPs to group regions according to their different economic and water resources conditions. The HE classification method uses the calculation results of the research team in this study [21]. According to the HE classification method of the WFAS, the provincial administrative regions of China were classified (excluding the Hong Kong special administrative region, the Macao special administrative region, and the Taiwan region) (Figure 2).…”

“…It quantitatively describes the five typical developmental pathways of the social economy in the future, and it distinguishes the different emission concentrations caused by the different developmental pathways. In addition, it distinguishes the different climate change responses and adaptabilities formed by the different developmental pathways [21]. The prediction of social and economic scenarios under the different pathways is beneficial for the combination of social and economic development and the natural factor model.…”

“…It can also predict the changes in water resource utilization by simulating the curves of changes in water resource utilization in the different regions under various scenarios. Previous studies have focused too much on small-scale water-saving effects and engineering fields, but the extended SSPs-HE framework combines a broad view of an entire hydrological basin with integrated water resources management, and evaluates the different social and economic pathways from the perspective of water use efficiency [21,36,39].…”

Analysis of the Accuracy of an FDR Sensor in Soil Moisture Measurement under Laboratory and Field Conditions

“…Nevertheless, the present efficiency of irrigation is low. In China, the mean utilization coefficient of irrigation water was 0.45 in 2019 [3]. Precision irrigation according to soil moisture dynamics is the key to achieving high water use efficiency (WUE, kg m -3 ).…”

Analysis of the Economy-Wide Rebound Effect of Water Efficiency Improvement in China Based on a Multi-Sectoral Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

“…Compared with surface irrigation, drip irrigation can improve irrigation efficiency by 30%, leading to significantly reduced water consumption [9]. Huang et al [10] and Guo et al [11] demonstrated that using watersaving technologies for irrigation could reduce crop water consumption and improve water productivity.…”