Prediction of the Delay in the Portfolio Construction Using Naïve Bayesian Classification Algorithms

Abstract

Projects suspensions are between the most insistent tasks confronted by the construction field accredited to the sector’s difficulty and its essential delay risk foundations’ interdependence. Machine learning provides a perfect group of techniques, which can attack those complex systems. The study aimed to recognize and progress a wellorganized predictive data tool to examine and learn from delay sources depend on preceding data of construction projects by using decision trees and naïve Bayesian classification algorithms. An intensive review of available data has been conducted to explore the real reasons and causes of construction project delays. The results show that the postponement of delay of interim payments is at the forefront of delay factors caused by the employer’s decision. Even the least one is to leave the job site caused by the contractor’s second part of the contract, the repeated unjustified stopping of the work at the site, without permission or notice from the client’s representatives. The developed model was applied to about 97 projects and used as a prediction model. The decision tree model shows higher accuracy in the prediction.

A Review of Data Mining Strategies by Data Type, with a Focus on Construction Processes and Health and Safety Management

“…In construction process field, 20 out of 61 observations were made regarding the construction of buildings, dams, roads, and tunnels. Within this field, the 60 out of 202 observations covered topics such as construction delays [22], crane, drilling and excavation tasks [14,18,24,39,48,70,74]; geological conditions [54], scaffolding collapse [68]; transport delays [31]; tunnelling [28,36,37,41,43,55,67]; workers and machinery location [34,40]. According to Erzaij et al [22], project suspensions are among the most persistent tasks facing the construction sector, due to the difficulty of the industry and the essential interdependence between the bases of delay risk.…”