Prediction of the global occurrence of maize diseases and estimation of yield loss under climate change

Abstract

BACKGROUNDClimate change significantly impacts global maize production via yield reduction, posing a threat to global food security. Disease‐related crop damage reduces quality and yield and results in economic losses. However, the occurrence of diseases caused by climate change, and thus crop yield loss, has not been given much attention.RESULTSThis study aims to investigate the potential impact of six major diseases on maize yield loss over the next 20 to 80 years under climate change. To this end, the Maximum Entropy model was implemented, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 data. The results indicated that temperature and precipitation are identified as primary limiting factors for disease onset. Southern corn rust was projected to be the most severe disease in the future; with a few of the combined occurrence of all the selected diseases covered in this study were predicted to progressively worsen over time. Yield losses caused by diseases varied per continent, with North America facing the highest loss, followed by Asia, South America, Europe, Africa, and Oceania.CONCLUSIONThis study provides a basis for regional projections and global control of maize diseases under future climate conditions. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.