Prediction of the Intensity of Solar Proton Events With Proton Energies of 10–100 Mev by X-Ray Emission of Flares

Abstract

The possibility of prediction of solar proton fluxes by the characteristics of flares in the X-ray range is considered. The parameter of flare proton possibility P is introduced. It is shown that the use of the parameter P significantly improves the accuracy of this forecast.

Implementation of Solar Particle Event Nowcast Approach for Real Time Application

“…An approach by [BO19] monitors electromagnetic flux (particularly, X-ray flux) to pinpoint phases of SPE evolution and possibly predict the oncoming particles tens of minutes beforehand. This approach utilizes statistical methods to provide an algorithm that describes X-ray change vs. time dependency.…”

“…An approach in [BO11] yields a relation between flare-connected SPEs power and X-flare flux intensity. The distribution X-ray flare flux at the flare's maximum f (J x ) and distribution of intensity of SPEs at it's maximum f (J p ) is formalised as:…”