Prediction of the Reasonable Scale of Highway Mileage Based on Socio-Economic Adaptation

Abstract

Determining the reasonable scale of highway mileage is an important step for the realization of highway network planning, and it is the premise and foundation of network optimization. To address the problem of reasonable scale of China's highway mileage prediction method of variety and unification, this study aims to improve the accuracy of the reasonable scale of highway mileage of the predicted value and enhance the rationality and reliability by analyzing the factors affecting the development of highway mileage systematically to determine the regional population, area, and economic development of the state, car ownership, and the relating level of development of highway mileage. Then we used factors of population, area, car ownership, and other economic development to correct the highway mileage growth curve forecasting model and obtain the social and economic growth curve forecasting model. Finally, we used historical data from 2000-2012 in the Shandong Province to verify the accuracy of the constructed model. The results show that the error of the socio-economic growth curve forecasting model can be controlled within 4%. Finally, we used the model to predict the reasonable scale of highway mileage of the Shandong Province.

Research on highway network layout optimization based on improved whale optimization algorithm

“…Bian et al [2] analyzed the relationship between highway network scale and traffic demand, selecting indicators for both dimensions and applying the Granger causality test to screen these indicators. Furthermore, Wang et al [3] has refined the prediction model for the growth curve of expressway mileage by incorporating economic development factors such as population, area, and vehicle ownership, resulting in a predictive model for socio-economic growth curves.…”

Research on the scale and density of China's highway network

“…The scale and density of highway network is an intuitive indicator to understand and analyze the development level of regional highway, and also an important reference for planning highway development scientifically. Experts and scholars from all over the world have conducted a great deal of theoretical research and exploration on the correlation between highway network and economic development [1][2][3][4] and the reasonable scale of highway network [5][6] . In this paper, we have compared China's national and regional highway network density with the world's major transport powers, and analyzed the development level and characteristics of the highway network of different regions; In addition, by summarizing the highway development process of various countries, we have studied the law and stage characteristics of highway network scale development.…”