Prediction of the Vaccine-derived Poliovirus Outbreak Incidence: A Hybrid Machine Learning Approach

Abstract

Recently, significant attention has been devoted to vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV) surveillance due to its severe consequences. Prediction of the outbreak incidence of VDPF requires an accurate analysis of the alarming data. the overarching aim to this study is to develop a novel hybrid machine learning approach to identify the key parameters that dominate the outbreak incidence of VDPV. The proposed method is based on the integration of random vector functional link (RVFL) networks with a robust optimization algorithm called whale optimization algorithm (WOA). WOA is applied to improve the accuracy of the RVFL network by finding the suitable parameter configurations for the algorithm. The classification performance of the WOA-RVFL method is successfully validated using a number of datasets from the UCI machine learning repository. Thereafter, the method is implemented to track the VDPV outbreak incidences recently occurred in several provinces in Lao People's Democratic Republic. The results demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the WOA-RVFL algorithm in detecting the VDPV outbreak incidences, as well as its superior performance to the traditional RVFL method.Poliovirus (PV) surveillance is considered as one of the most challenging issues in countries with suboptimal vaccination coverage levels due to the repetitive silent circulation of the vaccine derived poliovirus (VDPV). Despite its durable intestinal and humoral immunity, VDPV is genetically instable that might revert to wild-type virulence. According to a number of studies 1 , vaccines can cause vaccine-associated flaccid paralysis. Noteworthy, it can replicate for a prolonged time coinciding with the suboptimal vaccination 1 . Interaction of PV and CD155 receptors facilitates its entry 2 . Thereafter, the viral RNA is released. The genome enclosed in the viral particle is used as mRNA and translated by the host cell. The virus hijacks the cell's translation, leading to inhibition of protein synthesis during viral protein production. Ribosome entry site directs the viral RNA translation and synthesis of (+) RNA occurs. Some of the (+) RNA are used as templates for (−) RNA synthesis, some function as mRNA, and some are destined to be the genomes of virus progeny 1 .Globally, the concerted surveillance with the continuous integration and interpretation of health-related data are required to keep the prevention and elimination programs updated. PV surveillance is considered as one of the most important element of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) endgame strategy, which is also useful in detecting VDPV. There are mainly two types of PV surveillance, including (1) the environmental surveillance (ES) that analyzes wastewater to detect if the current collected samples carry PV 3,4 , and (2) the acute flaccid paralysis surveillance (AFPS) that depends on clinical presentation. However, the traditional PV surveillance methods are resource intensive to maintain the system of AFPS for the long term 2 . Still, combatting disease outbreaks signif...

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