Prediction of Waste Generation in Yogyakarta Special Region Province Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

Waste management poses a significant challenge in densely populated urban areas of Indonesia, particularly in the Special Region of Yogyakarta, which grapples with both a large populace and robust tourism industry. The region witnesses a staggering 11.53% annual uptick in waste accumulation, exacerbating the strain on existing waste management infrastructure. Addressing this pressing issue necessitates a comprehensive analysis to forecast waste generation trends, enabling the formulation of effective management strategies. This study employs the CRISP-DM framework, facilitating a structured approach to analysis and informed decisionmaking. Utilizing a time series dataset spanning from 2016 to 2022, detailing waste generation across various districts and cities, the research employs the ARIMA model for predictive analysis. This model, renowned for its suitability in time series forecasting, emerges as the preferred choice. Projections derived from the ARIMA model reveal a notable surge in waste generation across the Special Region of Yogyakarta from 2023 to 2025. Specifically, it is anticipated that the aggregate waste output will escalate from 638 thousand tons in 2022 to 642 thousand tons in 2023, with an anticipated annual increase ranging between 5 to 7 thousand tons thereafter. These forecasts underscore the urgency of implementing proactive measures to mitigate the burgeoning waste management challenges facing the province.