Prediction research of AIDS monthly incidence cases and mortality cases based on prophet model

Abstract

As a chronic disease endangering human life, AIDS seriously hurts human health and living. The study on the AIDS prediction model can provide a critical basis for the prevention and control decision-making and resource allocation. This paper selected the monthly AIDS incidence cases and mortality cases for ten years (July 2012 -June 2022) as the research objects. We analysed the data, combined the national AIDS transmission characteristics, and established the prophet model. Realized the Prophet Model modelling, verification, and prediction of monthly AIDS incidence cases and mortality cases and forecast them for the next six months in China. The actual data showed a completely fluctuating trend. In addition, from the forecast results, this trend is still relatively explicit in the future. The MAE of incidence cases is 400.68, which accounts for 7.6% of the mean actual values. The MAE of mortality cases is 74.22, which accounts for 4.47% of the mean actual values. Effective modelling and prediction of HIV incidence cases and mortality cases enable AIDS patients to recognize the harm in a time and effectively prevent and control its occurrence.