Predictions of future climate change in the caribbean region using global general circulation models

Abstract

Abstract:Since the 1800s the global average CO 2 mixing ratio has increased and has been related to increases in surface air temperature (0.6 ± 0.2°C) and variations in precipitation patterns among other weather and climatic variables. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS), according to the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are likely to be among the most seriously impacted regions on Earth by global climate changes. In this work, three climate change scenarios are investigated using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to study the impact of the global anthropogenic CO 2 concentration increases on the Caribbean climate. A climatological analysis of the Caribbean seasonal climate variation was conducted employing the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the Xie-Arkin precipitation and the Reynolds-Smith Sea Surface Temperature (SST) observed data. The PCM is first evaluated to determine its ability to predict the present time Caribbean climatology. The PCM tends to under predict the SSTs, which along with the cold advection controls the rainfall variability. This seems to be a main source of bias considering the low model performance to predict rainfall activity over the Central and southern Caribbean. Future predictions indicate that feedback processes involving evolution of SST, cloud formation, and solar radiative interactions affect the rainfall annual variability simulated by PCM from 1996 to 2098. At the same time two large-scale indices, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are strongly related with this rainfall annual variability. A future climatology from 2041 to 2058 is selected to observe the future Caribbean condition simulated by the PCM. It shows, during this climatology range, a future warming of approximately 1°C (SSTs) along with an increase in the rain production during the Caribbean wet seasons (early and late rainfall seasons). Although the vertical wind shear is strengthened, it typically remains lower than 8 m/s, which along with SST > 26.5°C provides favorable conditions for possible future increases in tropical storm frequency.

Regional long-term climate change (1950-2000) in the midtropical Atlantic and its impacts on the hydrological cycle of Puerto Rico

“…The observed increases in trade winds magnitude have been attributed to an increase in the North Atlantic high [Jury and Winter, 2010;Angeles et al, 2007].…”

“…Figure 6 shows the 1900-2005 SST time series, values are averaged over grid 1. Although there is a general increasing trend of SST in the Caribbean, associated with differences between Caribbean and North Atlantic near-surface pressures [Jury and Winter, 2010;Angeles et al, 2007], there are periods where the increase is more pronounced. These periods are identified as and from the early mid-1970s to 2005; the later period is of great importance for the research presented in this paper because is within the two time frames selected to perform the numerical mesoscale simulations.…”

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

“…Many of these studies use coarse-resolution general circulation models (GCMs) included in the fourth assessment report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to describe large-scale climatic changes in the region (e.g., Ángeles et al, 2007;Comarazamy and González, 2008;Biasutti et al, 2012). More recently, a handful of studies have used high-resolution regional climate models (RCMs) for studying climate change and its impact at spatial scales relevant for the islands (e.g., Castro et al, 2006;Centella et al, 2008;Campbell et al, 2010;Charlery and Nurse, 2010).…”

Impacts of Urban Development on Precipitation in the Tropical Maritime Climate of Puerto Rico

“…Long-term studies suggest that precipitation has been decreasing in the Caribbean since the 1970s and that droughts in Puerto Rico are periodic [31]. Some studies predict that global warming should result in an increase in negative precipitation anomalies during the summer (June-August), increased dry season duration and more frequent heavy rain events in the Caribbean [14,35,47]. Overall, rainfall in most subtropical areas, including the Caribbean, is projected to decline by around 20% over the next 100 years [36].…”

“…Seasonal influence is critically important in the Southeastern Caribbean because most of the precipitation falls during the summer [25]. Simulations with a mesoscale model using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM) to project future climate changes in Puerto Rico under the IPCC's Business as Usual (BAU) Scenario showed that the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and NAO have important controls on annual Caribbean rainfall variability [47]. [25] Effects are based on observations unless otherwise indicated;…”