Predictions of Migration from the New Member States after Their Accession into the European Union: Successes and Failures

Abstract

This article evaluates predictions of the level of migration from Central and Eastern European countries which joined the European Union in 2004. It does so by comparing observed levels of migration from the new Member States with predictions based on a 2002 Eurobarometer survey. This comparison demonstrates that the failures of previous approaches were due mainly to underestimating the complex relationship between regional and international migration. In contrast to the situation in EU 15, the propensity to migrate regionally within the accession states does not imply a greater potential for international migration. This article shows that GDP was a strong predictor of migration from the new Member States during the 2004 to 2006 period. Equally important, the research presented demonstrates that well‐chosen survey variables have the potential to provide accurate measurements of migration intentions.

The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration

“…Empirically, the specifications we use to analyze the "first step" are similar to the bilateral gravity-like regressions grounded on theoretical microfoundations and used in several previous studies (e.g. Karemera et al, 2000;Hatton and Williamson, 2005;Clark et al, 2007;Bahna, 2008;Hooghe et al, 2008;Pedersen et al, 2008;Mayda, 2010;Ruyssen et al, 2014). Several recent papers have refined the economic analysis of the determinants of migration, framing the empirical estimates within a more rigorous multicountry choice, random utility maximization model derived from McFadden (1974).…”

The Cross-country Determinants of Potential and Actual Migration

“…Karemera et al, 2000;Hatton and Williamson, 2005;Clark et al, 2007;Bahna, 2008;Hooghe et al, 2008;Pedersen et al, 2008;Mayda, 2010;Ruyssen et al, 2014). Several recent papers have refined the economic analysis of the determinants of migration, framing the empirical estimates within a more rigorous multi-country choice, random utility maximization model derived from McFadden (1974).…”

Studija o emigracijama BOSNA I HERCEGOVINA

“…Odluke o migraciji koje donose pojedinci najčešće su povezane s individualnim faktorima (Bahna, 2008) i osobinama ličnosti (Berry, 2001). Mnogi autori pronalaze različite individualne utjecaje kao potencijalne pokretače intencija i migracija, najčešće uključujući starost, spol, obrazovanje i bračni status ispitanika (Brockerhoff i Eu, 1993).…”